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- Tiffany Nicole Ervin is the new betting favorite to win Survivor 46 after the season premiere aired on Wednesday night.
- David Jelinsky of the Yanu Tribe was the first castaway voted off the 46th season of Survivor.
- Nami got off to a quick start with a win in the reward challenge and immunity challenge.
Following the season premiere of Survivor 46, Tiffany Nicole Ervin emerged as the new betting favorite to win on Wednesday night. The 33-year-old from Elizabeth, New Jersey, has +400 odds to win the 46th season of Survivor at BetOnline.
Ervin’s pre-season Survivor odds were listed at +800, tied for the third shortest with Jemila Hussain-Adams. Her odds of winning Survivor 46 improved significantly, with Ervin’s implied probability nearly cut in half.
At +800, Ervin had an implied probability of 11.1% to win the game. However, following her strong performance on the first night of Survivor, bettors were eager to back the artist. Now, Ervin has an implied probability of 20% to win Survivor 46.
With Ervin skyrocketing to the top of the Survivor 46 odds board, pre-season favorite, Tevin Davis, saw his odds remain the same at +600. As well as Ervin passing him in the odds, Yanu’s Kenzie Petty saw a significant bump in her odds, +500, to edge ahead of Davis.
Woman Castaway Heavily Favored to Win Survivor 46
Along with the odds to win Survivor seeing a significant shift after the first episode, the Survivor 46 prop bets were on the move, as well. With Ervin and Petty’s odds shortening, so did the odds on the sex of the winner.
Currently, the odds of a woman winning Survivor season 46 is -500 at BetOnline. Put differently, the probability of a woman being crowned the Survivor champion is 83.3%! Before the season Survivor 46 premiere, a woman winning was listed at -200 odds, which represents a nearly 20% shift.
Bettors can wager on a male winning at +300 odds. In other words, a $100 wager would yield a $300 profit if one of the men were to win Survivor 46. There are three men behind Ervin and Petty at BetOnline: Davis (+600), Q Burdette (+650), and Tim Spicer (+800).
Jelinsky Gets Boot After Discouraging Effort
There is one fewer male in the game after the Tribal Council meeting on Wednesday evening. Las Vegas resident David Jelinsky was the first player of the game to be voted off Survivor 46.
In only three days in Fiji, Jelinsky managed to quit in multiple challenges and got caught lying. His tribemates were not impressed, which ultimately resulted in his undoing at Tribal Council. Additionally, his terrible effort in the immunity challenge resulted in him having to go on the chopping block along with his Yanu tribemates.
Was there any redeeming feature of Jelinsky? Well, for one, how badly he played the game was fairly entertaining. Aside from that, the 22-year-old slot machine salesman will go down in Survivor lore as one of the worst castaways of all time.
We do hope that he is better at selling slot machines than playing Survivor.
Nami Remain Favorites to Win Survivor 46
Interestingly enough, BetOnline’s “Tribe of Winner” prop bet has Nami listed as the favorite. Nami’s pre-season Survivor odds were even money, and after the first episode, the odds remain identical. They were impressive in the opening challenges, with a win in the reward and immunity challenge.
That said, betting favorites Ervin and Petty are on Nami, which has the worst odds on the “Tribe of Winner” prop wager at +180. If you like Ervin and Petty to win, but can’t decide on one, the Nami prop bet could be tempting at this price.
At +180, Nami has an implied probability of 35.7%. What conclusions can we draw from this? It could simply mean that the betting public isn’t putting any money into this bet and instead focusing on the individual castaways — hence the line movement on Ervin and Petty but not Yanu.
You might be wondering: Who has the worst odds to win Survivor 46? That dubious honor goes to 41-year-old IT quality analyst Bhanu Gopal from Acton, Massachusetts. Gopal has +1600 odds, with an implied probability of 5.9% to capture the Survivor 46 title.
