Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals - November 3, 2024

As I approach the upcoming match between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium, I can’t help but dive into the numbers that tell a compelling story about both teams. With Cincinnati entering as -7-point favorites and a total set at 44.5, the stage is set for what could be an interesting clash on Sunday.

Let’s start with the Bengals. Despite a recent 37-17 loss to the Eagles, Cincinnati’s offensive stats reveal a team capable of putting points on the board, averaging 24.4 points per game. Their passing game is particularly notable, boasting 249.1 yards per game with an impressive completion percentage of 69.8%. They also add a modest 89.8 rushing yards per game. However, it’s worth noting that when they play at home, they haven’t been as consistent as one might expect, holding a 1-4-1 ATS record over their last six home games.

Meanwhile, the Raiders find themselves in a bit of a downward spiral, losing four straight and standing at 2-6 SU. But contrary to popular belief, they’re not completely devoid of competitiveness. They managed to cover the spread against the Chiefs as +9 underdogs in their last outing, and they’ve gone over in five of their last seven games. Their average score of 18 points per game suggests they’re struggling to find the end zone, particularly lacking in the rushing department with only 79 yards per game.

One thing that stands out for both teams is their inability to close out games strong, particularly in Cincinnati’s recent performances. The Bengals have stumbled at home, contributing to their overall plight of 1-4 SU in their last five games. Their current streak of failing to cover the spread further amplifies the concern, especially when matched against a Raiders team that has actually shown resilience by covering in three of their last five games.

So what can we expect on Sunday? I predict the Bengals will emerge victorious. However, with the Raiders consistently managing to stay close enough to cover the spread, I believe the numbers back up this trend. When an underdog like the Raiders is involved, particularly against a Bengals team that’s struggled, covering the spread becomes a plausible outcome.

Regarding the projected point total, trending data and the overall scoring average suggest that we could see the total fall below the set line of 44.5. The Raiders’ offensive struggles, coupled with Cincinnati’s inconsistent scoring, point us towards a potentially low-scoring affair. With the Bengals managing an average of 24.4 points and the Raiders sitting at 18, it’s reasonable to expect a final score that might not hit the over.

In summary, while I expect the Bengals to take the game, the Raiders should cover, and the total will likely end up under the set line. As we analyze matchups and past performances, it’s essential to keep an eye on the trends, proving once again that numbers don’t lie.