Montreal Canadiens @ New Jersey Devils - November 7, 2024

As the Montreal Canadiens prepare to face off against the New Jersey Devils at Prudential Center, there’s a clear divide in momentum and performance metrics that suggest an uphill battle for the Canadiens. The odds reflect this sentiment, with New Jersey opening as -213 favorites, while the total sits at 6.5.

The Devils have showcased their offensive prowess this season, averaging 3.5 goals per game on nearly 30 shots. Their shooting percentage of 12.3% indicates they are finding ways to convert opportunities into goals effectively. Furthermore, they excel in special teams with a power play percentage of over 30%, which is among the league’s best. This efficiency will be critical against a Canadiens team that has struggled both offensively and defensively.

On the flip side, Montreal’s struggles are evident in their average of just 2.8 goals per game and a shooting percentage below 11.6%. Their Corsi percentage of 43.8% suggests they’re often outmatched in puck possession battles, which could further hinder their ability to generate offense against a formidable opponent like New Jersey.

Defensively, New Jersey has been solid, boasting a save percentage of 90%, coupled with an effective penalty kill rate of over 83%. This defensive resilience means that even if Montreal manages to find themselves on the power play—where they’ve scored only about three-quarters of a goal per game—they may struggle to capitalize given New Jersey’s strong penalty-killing unit.

Montreal’s recent form compounds these challenges; they’ve lost four straight games and have only one win in their last five outings overall (1-4 SU). Additionally, they’ve been particularly poor on the road with just one win in their last nine attempts away from home (1-8 SU). In contrast, New Jersey has found success against Montreal historically; they hold a record of winning 13 out of their last 17 matchups against them.

While bettors might look at Montreal’s recent trend towards higher-scoring games—having gone OVER in six out of eight—this matchup may lean towards an UNDER outcome based on both teams’ current trajectories and styles of play. Given how well New Jersey can defend and how poorly Montreal has fared offensively lately, it seems plausible that scoring will be limited.

In conclusion, I predict that tonight’s game will see New Jersey emerge victorious while covering the spread due to their superior form and statistical advantages across various facets of play. However, despite being underdogs struggling significantly this season, I believe Montreal will manage to keep it close enough to cover while keeping the final score under expectations set by oddsmakers at around six or seven goals total for both sides combined.