We’ve got the 2024 Chess Candidates Tournament odds for all eight grandmasters who will pursuit a place in the World Championship match later this year. The best betting sites offer the opportunity to back any of them in what will be a fierce battle.
Scheduled from April 3 to April 22, the winner of the tournament will earn a chance to meet against the reigning champion Ding Liren for the world title. On top of that, the first place in the Candidates Tournament is worth €48,000.
If you want to make it even more interesting with some wagers, check out the latest odds as well as my 2024 Candidates Tournament predictions and best bets.
Chess Candidates Tournament 2024 Odds
The following 2024 Chess Candidates Tournament betting odds are courtesy of 22Bet:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Fabiano Caruana | +155 |
| Ian Nepomniachtchi | +400 |
| Hikaru Nakamura | +410 |
| Alireza Firouzja | +515 |
| Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa | +700 |
| Gukes Dommaraju | +1020 |
| Gujrathi Vidit | +2100 |
| Nijat Abasov | +5400 |
The Candidates field is a unique class of competitors in 2024. Four young up-and-coming chess prodigies with something to prove are up against four wily veterans in the double round-robin event.
According to 22Bet, 31-year-old American grandmaster Fabiano Caruana is the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 Candidates Tournament. At +155 odds, Caruana has an implied probability of 39.2% to win the Candidates.
It’s no surprise that the 33-year-old native of Bryansk, Russia, Ian Nepomniachtchi (+410) has the second-best odds. The World Chess Championship 2023 runner-up is going to be a major threat to getting a rematch against Liren.
Note: I can’t find Candidates Tournament odds at the top US betting sites at the time I’m working on this article, but Bovada usually covers the event. I will keep my eyes open and let you know when the odds are up.
Bettors from other regions can place their wagers at 22Bet, a fantastic sportsbook that covers pretty much any sport you can think of.
Chess Candidates Tournament 2024 Main Favorites
Three grandmasters will enter the Candidates Tournament as favorites. Let’s check out the odds and how they stack up heading into Toronto.
Fabiano Caruana (+155)
Caruana is the obvious grandmaster to favor for the Candidates in Toronto. As long as Magnus Carlsen isn’t entered in a premier tournament, all eyes will divert to Caruana’s next move.
The Brooklyn, New York, native has qualified for every Candidates Tournament since 2016. In 2018, he recorded nine points to edge out Sergey Karjakin and Shakhriyar Mamedyarov.
Despite failing to beat Carlsen in the World Championship, Caruana took the best player in the world down to the wire in a rapid tiebreaker. It was a match that could have gone in either direction.
This was also the case in their latest showdown at the Champions Chess Tour Finals 2023. Carlsen came from a queen down to beat Caruana in a nail-biter 3-2 victory. Again, it was an impressive effort from Caruana, although he couldn’t defeat Carlsen in the later stages.
Congratulations to Fabiano Caruana on winning the American Cup Blitz Event! #AmericanCup #FabianoCaruana
📸By Lennart Ootes for St Louis Chess Club pic.twitter.com/wtD76eqrwe— Grand Chess Tour (@GrandChessTour) March 21, 2024
Currently, Caruana is in sharp form, with a FIDE rating of 2804, the second highest in the world1. In his latest event, Caruana scored a win in the American Cup Blitz this past weekend. Without Carlsen to deal with in this event, Caruana’s Chess Candidates Tournament odds as the favorite make plenty of sense here.
Ian Nepomniachtchi (+400)
Russian Ian Nepomniachtchi is looking to become a three-time Candidates champion after winning the even for a second time in 2022.
“Nepo” lost in 11 games to Carlsen, and then the following year was downed in a tiebreaker versus Liren. The highest-rated Russian grandmaster in the world reached a career-high ranking of No. 2 in February 2023 and a peak rating of 2,795 in March 2023.
However, after finishing ninth in the Superbet Chess Classic 2023, Nepomniachtchi dropped down the board. After that, he lost in the fifth round to Vidit Gujrathi at the Chess World Cup 2023.
He was also the subject of controversy at the World Blitz Chess Championship 2023. Nepomniachtchi and Daniil Dubov were both punished for playing a draw with only knight moves2. It was a questionable “strategy” that didn’t go unnoticed.
Due to his recent failures, the veteran is going into the 2024 Candidates Tournament ranked No. 7 in the world3. If “Nepo” is in his best form, he can beat this field, but we haven’t seen a top effort recently.
As a result, Nepomniachtchi’s Chess Candidates Tournament 2024 odds to win are well behind Caruana. An implied probability of 20% to win appears accurate. His current form is a clear disadvantage going into April, but we’ll see if he can recover at the right moment.
Hikaru Nakamura (+410)
The second American in the tournament, Hikaru Nakamura, enters as the third-highest ranked grandmaster in the world. Only Caruana and Carlsen are ahead of Nakamura currently.
The five-time U.S. Chess Champion remains a considerable threat at 36 years old. In 2015, Nakamura reached the top of his career with a No. 2 world ranking. He also registered impressive wins over Caruana and Carlsen in 2023.
In fact, Nakamura beat Carlsen and then Caruana in the same event at the Chessable Masters this past April. Two months later, the American edged out Caruana by half a point in the finals of the Norway Chess 2023.
Nakamura qualified for the Candidates with a second-place finish in the FIDE Grand Swiss 2023 in November. However, in his latest most notable tournament, he was only fifth in the Champions Chess Tour after struggling in the fast rounds.
He needs to do better to win the Candidates Tournament, so I’m not convinced by Nakamura’s recent performances.
Dark Horses for the Candidates Tournament 2024
There are two dark horses worth considering in Toronto. While they are too risky to be the 2024 Candidates Tournament best bets, I see value in the odds for the following grandmasters.
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18-year-old Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa has a very bright future in chess. The native of Chennai, India, has a solid chance of speeding up his arrival at the top of the world before turning 19.
He was the youngest competitor to reach the Chess World Cup in 2023 and has plenty of confidence despite his age. Praggnanandhaa defeated Caruana in the semifinals and then came up short in the repaid tiebreaks versus Carlsen.
It was enough to qualify for a trip to Toronto in the final eight, so this is a contestant to watch out for. As a young gun who is constantly improving, Praggnanandhaa’s Candidates Tournament 2024 betting odds of +700 carry strong value.
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Although Gujrathi Vidit’s implied probability equates to just 4.5% percent, he likely has roughly an 8 to 10% chance of winning. Vidit is ranked No. 17 in the world with a rating of 2,747.
He posted some quality wins in 2023, including the FIDE Grand Swiss Tournament 2023 title. After dropping the first round, Vidit rattled off seven wins in ten games for a score of 8.5. Also, at the World Cup, the 29-year-old defeated “Nepo” in the Round of 16.
Vidit has a low probability of winning, but at these odds, it’s worth a look. Consider dedicating a small portion of your bankroll on Vidit to win at +2100.
Candidates Tournament 2024 Prediction and Betting Pick
It’s hard to go against the main favorite in this year’s Candidates Tournament. Fabiano Caruana’s consistency has been remarkable, while his main rivals have struggled recently.
Caruana is traditionally at his best in classical events. There is rarely a classical tournament where he doesn’t deliver. He’s the closest thing to Carlsen in this respect.
Furthermore, motivation and drive give Caruana a slight advantage over Nakamura, Nepo, and the rest. He is determined more than ever to find a seat opposite Liren at the World Championship. Caruana has an implied chance to win of 39.2% according to the odds, but I believe the real probability is closer to 45%. +155 is simply too high against this field.
Caruana is the smart choice, but Praggnanandhaa is the one dark horse to consider for your 2024 Chess Candidates Tournament best bets. Combining the top favorite with a longshot could be a viable strategy.
Where To Bet On The Chess Candidates Tournament 2024?
After you’ve made your Chess Candidates Tournament 2024 predictions, it is time to find an online sportsbook offering prices for this event. 22Bet, which has odds on a variety of different unique markets, is accepting bets on the Candidates Tournament.
They provide Candidates Tournament betting odds for every competitor in the event, as well as certain props related to the individual performances of all grandmasters. To get started, deposit at 22Bet for a 100% match sports betting bonus of up to €122 euros or C$180.
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If you’re in the United States, I recommend Bovada. It’s one of the most renowned bookmakers accepting Americans. You will find odds on all matches from the Chess Candidates, starting from the first round.
Sources:
Fabiano Caruana | Grand Chess Tour. Retrieved From “https://ratings.fide.com/profile/2020009”
World Blitz Chess Championship Day 1 | Chess.com. Retrieved From “https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-fide-world-blitz-chess-championship-day-1”
FIDE Ratings and Statistics | International Chess Federation. Retrieved From “https://ratings.fide.com/”
