We now know all match-ups in the EURO 2024 Last 16 stages and the top soccer betting sites have released their odds, so it’s time to look for some value!
Keep reading to find the odds and my predictions for all games from the opening round of the knockouts, as well as my in-depth analysis and Last 16 best bets for three of the matches!
EURO 2024 Last 16 Betting Odds and Predictions for All Games
Let’s begin with an overview of the Last 16 betting odds and my predictions for all games.
| Match | Odds | Prediction | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland vs. Italy | Switzerland (+234) Italy (+145) Draw (+195) | Switzerland (+234) | BetUS |
| Germany vs. Denmark | Germany (-167) Denmark (+480) Draw (+200) | Germany (-167) | Betwhale |
| England vs. Slovakia | England (-227) Slovakia (+720) Draw (+330) | England (-227) | Betwhale |
| Spain vs. Georgia | Spain (-435) Georgia (+1100) Draw (+550) | Spain (-435) | Bovada |
| France vs. Belgium | France (-110) Belgium (+360) Draw (+230) | Draw (+230) | BetUS |
| Portugal vs. Slovenia | Portugal (-245) Slovenia (+700) Draw (+370) | Slovenia (+700) | Bovada |
| Romania vs. Netherlands | Romania (+600) Netherlands (-220) Draw (+350) | Draw (+350) | BetUS |
| Austria vs. Turkey | Austria (-109) Turkey (+310) Draw (+250) | Austria (-109) | Betwhale |
These are my EURO 2024 Last 16 predictions for all games, but I want to highlight the three best bets I see for this stage next!
Switzerland to Beat Italy (+234)
The reigning European champions Italy were on the brink of elimination in the group stages, before a stunning late goal Zaccagni helped them send Croatia home and progress to the knockouts.
The team showed spirit in this game, but I haven’t been too impressed with Italy so far. It feels like this squad lacks quality compared to the major favorites in the tournament, so it won’t be easy in the knockouts.
The next match will tell us a lot, since Italy will face a very confident and experienced side. Switzerland is still unbeaten in the tournament, so I was surprised to see the EURO 2024 Last 16 odds for this one.
I would’ve expected much closer prices for both sides, since this upcoming game is essentially a coin flip for me. Switzerland can defend well in numbers, has a few explosive forwards, and can rely on the midfield to control the tempo.
If you add Sommer’s calming presence, this team is built for knockout matches! The young Italian squad (sixth youngest in the tournament) will need something special to beat the Swiss and I’m not sure they can deliver.
I expect a tight game that will be decided by one goal. I trust Switzerland’s experience and discipline under such circumstances, so I’m more than happy to back the underdog at +234!
Germany to Beat Denmark (-167)
I was skeptical about Germany’s chances to meet the expectations in their home tournament before EURO 2024 started. However, the group stage couldn’t have gone better for the hosts.
They completely demolished Scotland in the opener, then beat Hungary, and found a late equalizer against the tough Swiss side to top Group A.
The nation believes this team can go all the way. I remain skeptical about Germany’s chances to lift the trophy, but the home side should comfortably beat Denmark in the next game.
The Scandinavians made it out of the groups with three boring draws. They had some decent moments, but nothing really impressed me. The defense is leaky under pressure, while you won’t see Denmark creating many chances on the other end of the pitch.
The other big factor here is depth. If the game goes wrong for Germany, they can rely on guys like Leroy Sane, Muller, Fullkrug, and other top players to come from the bench and make a difference.
Denmark doesn’t have the same luxury, so it’s hard to see how they can knock out the hosts. Getting -167 for Germany is enough for me to back the favorite in this match.
The only minor issue I see is that Jonathan Tah will miss this one due to suspension, but that’s not enough to turn the tables.
Slovenia to Progress Against Portugal (+395)
This pick will raise a few eyebrows but hear me out before you think I’m crazy! Portugal looks really strong on paper and did win Group F. However, I see a big issue with their coach Roberto Martinez.
The same guy failed to get results with Belgium’s golden generation, and I see lots of similarities with Portugal.
The first problem is that Ronaldo shouldn’t be starting. The guy’s records and achievements are iconic, but he’s not the same player nowadays. Portugal has more than enough attacking players that should be ahead of him in the pecking order, but Martinez seems determined to oblige the superstar.
Starting him against Georgia and keeping him on the pitch for 66 mins, despite the fact Portugal had secured the top spot, tells you everything you need to know. Furthermore, Ronaldo threw a tantrum when he was taken off, which is a sign of poor atmosphere in the camp.
Martinez doesn’t have the guts to manage a team with so many stars. He struggles to get the best of them, as we saw with Belgium, so I expect them team to fail spectacularly against Slovenia.
The underdog can rely on one of the best goalkeepers in the world, a resilient defense, and a rising star in attack. The Slovenians went unbeaten in a very competitive group, so they will be flying for this match.
All the pressure is on Portugal, too, so I expect Slovenia to just sit back, soak the pressure, and frustrate the favorite. I can see the underdog nicking a goal, which should be enough to at least force the game to extra time.
Portugal could still win based on pure quality, of course, but the value is most definitely on Slovenia. If you’re bold enough, feel free to back them to win in regular time, which is available at +700!
The safer choice and one of the best bets for the Last 16 is to go for Slovenia to progress to the next round at +395.
