On Saturday, March 25, the UFC will be live from the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas, for UFC on ESPN 43: Vera vs. Sandhagen, also known as UFC San Antonio. The featured bout of the night is a clash between two Top 5 bantamweights.
This 13-fight card should make for a competitive night of action. You can find odds and prop bets for the entire lineup at the best UFC betting sites.
UFC on ESPN 43 Odds
We couldn’t find a single bet in the opening odds worth the parlay risk, but rather a series of high confidence value bets. Expect lines on favorites like Barber, Holm and Lutz to strengthen by the weekend. All UFC betting odds are courtesy of Bovada.
| Pick | Odds | Confidence | Payout per $100 Wager |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Sandhagen | -165 | Moderate | $160 |
| Holly holm | -250 | High, Value Bet | $140 |
| Austin Lingo/Under 2.5 Rounds | -130 | Moderate | $130 |
| Maycee Barber | -240 | High, Value Bet | $141 |
| Manel Kape | -190 | Moderate-High | $152 |
| Chidi Njokuani | -179 | Moderate | $159 |
| Tucker Lutz | -250 | Moderate-High | $140 |
| Steven Peterson | -170 | High, Value Bet | $158 |
| Parsons vs Giles: Under 2.5 Rounds | -155 | Moderate* | $164 |
| Daniel Lacerda | +210 | Low, Upset Pick | $310 |
| Manuel Torres | -170 | High, | $158 |
| Altamirano vs Salvador: Over 1.5 Rounds | -205 | Moderate, Value Bet | $148 |
| Tamires Vidal | +105 | Low, Upset Pick | $205 |
UFC on ESPN 43 Predictions
The following is a breakdown of our picks as to who will win at UFC on ESPN 43:
Cory Sandhagen -165 vs Marlon Vera +135
Vera has skyrocketed in the rankings since his 2020 win over O’Malley, followed by a 3-1 run losing only a decision to Jose Aldo. Sandhagen is 1-2 in his last three fights, but maintains the favorite because of the competitive fight with Yan, and finishes in all three wins.
We’ve seen Sandhagen hover around -160 for three fights, aside from his +240 status against Yan. He lost to T.J. opening at -164, and Sterling at +115.
Vera upset Font at +150 opening and O’Malley at a +240 close. We’ve considered other stats, like Vera’s high rate of fire. The biggest difference is power, where Vera is a cumulative striker, and Sandhagen will sleep opponents in round 1 regularly.
Cory Sandhagen’s highlight pic.twitter.com/DY1tFg25z2
— CORY SANDHAGEN PROPAGANDE (@Liletrafeptn) March 19, 2023
Neither man has been knocked out in the UFC, leading the over to sit at -155 for Over 4.5 rounds. Not very lucrative to run the Over 1.5 later in the week, but possibly the best choice. We’re leaning toward Sandhagen, who’s beaten more relevant contenders and outperformed Vera against Song Yadong in dramatic fashion.
Holly Holm -250 vs Yana Santos +200
I stand by the Ketlen Vieira loss being absurd. Holm outworked Vieira at every turn, and should have won her last three bouts. Santos beat Vieira, but was just knocked out by Aldana in the very first round. Santos has always had the problem of being run over by athletic women.
Compare Holm and Santos’ losses to Cyborg Justino: Holm went toe to toe for fight of the night, and Santos was finished in three minutes. The difference in their ability to handle aggression matters, because Holm knows she can just move forward and land combinations.
Take the Holm money line, and we expect the UFC on ESPN 43 odds to move in Holm’s favor by Friday to -300. Santos fans should look to the Under 2.5 rounds.
Austin Lingo +190 vs Nate Landwehr -235
Alex Caceres was out last minute, pitting Nate against Lingo, a short notice fighter. Lingo, now 2-1 in the UFC, carries the ironic nickname of lights out after scoring three straight decisions.
Landwehr has been knocked out twice in the UFC, running into multiple knees. He’s more submission focused than other fighters, and this will be booked as striker vs grappler.
We expect odds to be announced later tonight. Nate comes up short on durability and Lingo has knocked down two UFC fighters to date. We could see a KO or submission. If the Under 2.5 rounds prop is better than the Lingo money line, bet that. For now, we’ll keep it simple.
Andrea Lee +193 vs Maycee Barber -240
Barber is 7-2 in the UFC overall, but is a long way from her four-fight knockout streak in 2018-2019. Lee is 2-1 in her last three, but has developed increasingly useful striking. She had a string of close decisions in 2019-2020, but finished her last two fights.
UFC on ESPN 43 betting odds for Barber are up two fights in a row, hovering at -350 over Eye after falling from -900 against Madafferi in a massive upset loss. For us, that was just a flat night for Barber. She was robbed in the Grasso decision, and has no foreseeable weaknesses against Lee.
Alex Perez +155 vs Manel Kape -190
After back-to-back losses in the first round, Perez takes a slight step back in competition. Kape is 3-2 in the UFC and shares a loss to Pantoja with Perez. He’s a striking heavy fighter that will only run submissions off the takedown counter. That’s bad news for Perez who revealed he’s ripe for the counter submission.
Perez has submitted four men in the UFC, each after initiating takedown scrambles. A risky gameplan, it cost him against title holders and contenders. Kape’s knockout power could be the equalizer on the feet, and frankly 10 months off may not be enough time for Perez to regain his mojo.
Our UFC on ESPN 43 prediction is Kape, or the Under 2.5 rounds prop bet. We’ll stick to the money line for now, but see if they offer +200 or better odds on the finish.
Albert Duraev +146 vs Chidi Njokuani -179
Njokuani saw his first UFC loss last September, making a 2-1 UFC run (all KOs) and a third round KO against Mario Sousa at DWCS. Duraev just lost to Buckey last June after a shocking win over Kopylov. While Duraev is ground game focused, it’s clear he has some striking acumen.
Duraev absorbs 2.46 strikes per minute on average, essentially trading at 2.9 landed per minute. Not only does Njokuani have a higher rate of landing, he does so at double his strikes absorbed.
The five-inch reach advantage for Njokuani is going to be obvious every exchange, and his 75% takedown defense will limit Duraev’s control time.
Don’t blink, or you might miss @ChidiBangNjoku with the quickness!
Next up, he fights @RafaCarvalhoMMA on July 12th at The @Winstar World Casino & Resort.#Bellator224 pic.twitter.com/B11iuCXK4d
— Bellator MMA (@BellatorMMA) June 29, 2019
Chidi’s Bellator career is nothing to balk at. He’s got tons of experience. We align with the UFC on ESPN 43 odds and see a Njokuani win, but would hedge the bet with the ‘Fight Goes to Decision, No’ prop if it pays better than -200. It likely will hover around -300 or better.
Daniel Pineda +200 vs Tucker Lutz -250
Pineda has been struggling, losing 5 of his last eight, including a NC loss after Andre Fili poked him in the eye. With four UFC finish wins, it’s clear that Daniel is exciting and aggressive, but he can be petered out by the right decision fighter.
After two DWCS wins that were too boring to get a contract, the UFC offered Lutz a win over Kevin Aguilar in a narrow decision. Lutz was out grappled by Sabatini, who’s head and shoulders above Pineda in straight wrestling.
The over under is useless here, as the under is a bet for Pineda and Lutz will only see a decision win. We’re sticking with Lutz for a moderate to high confidence bet, but you could take the ‘Lutz by decision’ prop bet and get better UFC on ESPN 43 odds.
Lucas Alexander +140 vs Steven Peterson -170
Peterson’s fight of the night with Erosa was last year, ending a two-fight winning streak. Now 3-5 in the UFC, Steven gets offered the 7-3 Lucas Alexander. Lucas lost to Brito in his debut six months ago, and was viciously outclassed in a 99 second loss.
Petersen has been the underdog in every UFC appearance to date by closing. He opened as a -110 over Alex Caceres in a beating, and -180 against Chase Hooper in a decision win. It feels like the oddsmakers have been honing in on Peterson and now have his ability well predicted.
Look to the under if you’re desperate for a higher return, but Peterson is a high confidence value bet over a young man who probably needs to go back to the drawing board for a year before finding UFC talent he can hang with.
Preston Parsons -110 vs Trevin Giles -110
Oddsmakers have this billed as the most competitive fight of the night. Giles was undefeated until his four UFC losses, including 2 submissions and 2 KOs in the past four years. Parsons is 10-3 overall and 1-1 in the UFC. He’s still fairly green, but has a well-rounded game and brings a much higher rate of fire than Giles.
Parsons has superior wrestling, taking opponents down more often and boasting a 100% takedown defense in two fights. The biggest issue is that Giles’ opponent quality is so much higher than Parsons. The losses to Morales and Du Plessis shouldn’t count against Giles, they’re too much better than Parsons to factor in.
We see a close fight that doesn’t go to decision. For now, we’ll take the Under 2.5 Rounds at -155, but move to the “Fight Goes to Decision, No” prop at Bovada when it’s released late Wednesday or Thursday. We’re estimating UFC on ESPN 43 odds of -300.
C.J. Vergara -265 vs Daniel Lacerda +210
Vergara is 1-2 in the UFC after winning a KO DWCS contract over Bruno Korea. Lacerda only has UFC losses and has been finished in all three fights, which puts him at 11-4. Lacerda is 26 and has plenty of time to figure it out. He’s high pressure and walks right into fighters.
Vergara gets hit a lot. He’s not someone with consistent performances and it’s tough to consider this a value bet. At 31, he’s getting old for the flyweight division and it’s a coin toss if he’s surpassed by a young man who’s still learning the game.
Our bet is the upset, but place only a moderate wager on this prediction with a 3:1 return.
Manuel Torres -170 vs Trey Ogden +140
Torres is a terror, landing an average 10 strikes a minute in two knockout wins. Ogden gets hit at 4 strikes a minute on average, but his win over Daniel Zellhuber shocked us. We had Zellhuber as a parlay winner and Ogden showed up and put it to him.
First RD finish 🔥🔥🔥
Manuel Torres came out SWINGING! #UFCVegas54
— UFC (@ufc) May 15, 2022
Still, we think Torres is something different. It will take a high degree of composure to manage that forward aggression, and Ogden isn’t exactly a defensive genius. Torres is yet to be taken down, and Ogden shoots often but lands only 15% of attempts.
Ogden will exhaust himself wrestling and get out landed by Torres early. We’re unsure of another finish for Manuel, and fans of Ogden should think about the Over 1.5 rounds prop when it’s released.
Victor Altamirano -105 vs Vinicius Salvador -190
Two knockout artists go head-to-head in a flyweight match that promises a high rate of action. Altamirano has a slight wrestling advantage, while Salvador has faster career KO wins overall. Expect a striking showdown with a slight bias toward the over, with Altamirano looking for control rounds to ensure victory.
Hailey Cowan -125 vs Tamires Vidal +105
Cowan is coming off a split decision DWCS contract win. She’s the better grappler in this fight with Vidal, who’s 7-1 and took a UFC flying knee win in November. It’s clear Cowan is more conservative, and picks her shots carefully. Vidal wants to initiate chaos and find the win inside it.
We’re excited to see another high return on an already very competitive card, so we’re siding with Vidal, who has a clear chance at victory given Cowan’s limited experience against TKO strikers.
UFC on ESPN 43: Value Bets
Take a close look at the high average return of each prediction. UFC on ESPN 43 odds have this billed as a card with no clear blow outs. Which is a relief given the massive upsets at UFC 286 of O’Neill and Usman.
Spread your money across as many bets as you’re comfortable with, and look to take advantage of this week’s busy MMA schedule rather than going all in on a UFC parlay that isn’t necessarily there.
