After a week off, we’re back with UFC Fight Night 218 odds. UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Spivak features 9 bouts with 2:1 odds or better. This card, filled with strong favorites, gives us its own UFC parlay, but we think you’re better off building a ticket using multiple shows at any UFC betting site.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Spivak Predictions
| Top Bets from Bovada | Winnings per $100 Wager |
|---|---|
| Lewis vs Spivak: Under 4.5 Rounds -700 | $14 |
| Jung vs Clark: Over 1.5 Rounds -155 | $64 |
| Blagoy vs Tybura: Over 1.5 rounds at -475 | $21 |
| Doo Ho vs Nelson: Fight Goes to Decision, No -350 | $28 |
| Yusaku Kinoshita Money Line -335 | $29 |
| Jeka Saragih Money Line -110 | $90 |
| JeongYeong Lee Money Line -250 | $40 |
| SeungGuk Choi Money Line +155 | $155 |
| Ji Yeon Kim Money Line -285 | $35 |
| Park by Submission or Decision -150 | $66 |
| Tatsuro Taira Money Line -1400 | $7 |
Top UFC Fight Night 218 Parlay
The three-fight parlay that we’re most excited about for this event is the Lee money line, Taira money line, and Spivak vs Lewis under bets. This three-fight parlay pays at -140, a $71 return per $100 wager ($171 payout.)
If you want, you can add this to the parlay we outlined in our Best MMA Bets of the Week for this weekend’s shows.
UFC Fight Night 218 Picks
There are 16-20 betting markets for each fight, so there is a possibility you can find multiple parlays using high confidence Over/Under bets. While we’ve picked the bet with the highest value, we encourage you to find the right risk profile with the UFC Fight Night 218 betting odds you select.
Derrick Lewis +195 vs Serghei Spivac -230
We’re taking the easy route on this one and predicting a knockout. Lewis hasn’t seen a decision in six fights, and he’s never seen a five-round decision. The Under 4.5 rounds is -700 and that’s a steal.
Neither man has seen the end of the fifth round, and with a string of first round finishes from both fighters, this is the bet to make and to parlay. If you’re feeling risky, the ‘fight ends in round 1’ prop bet is +115, and both men have been finished (and won) inside one round over their last four bouts.
Da Woon Jung -265 vs Devin Clark +210
Jacoby crushed Jung in round 1 for what many believe to be a fluke knockout. Clark is 1-3 over his last four bouts, and his last loss to the 12-0 Azamat Murzakanov continues his history of losing to future Top 10 205-pound fighters.
I see their performances against William Knight to be telling. Jung could take him down and not much else, while Clark knocked him out after a boring round 1 and 2. We see the Clark upset as the right bet, but the Over 1.5 Rounds prop at -155 is the real favorite.
Blagoy Ivanov lands first and @bambamtuivasa responds #UFC238 pic.twitter.com/bY1y6arGUk
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) June 9, 2019
Blagoy Ivanov +120 vs Marcin Tybura -145
Blagoy has a chin and Tybura has serious hands. This is a recipe for a one hell of a matchup. With Blagoy going to decision in all six UFC bouts, including his fight with Derrick Lewis, there’s more room to bet the over props.
Over 1.5 rounds at -475 is a clear favorite, and we think Ivanov can beat Tybura, so skipping the money lines is a good idea.
Choi Doo-Ho -200 vs Kyle Nelson +167
After losing three fights via knockout back-to-back, Choi is still the favorite. Nelson is 1-4 in the UFC, but he does have knockout power. He’s seen one decision since 2018, and his knockout victory prop pays +325.
Not bad, but we’re more excited about the UFC Fight Night 218 odds for ‘Fight Goes to Decision, No’ at -350, aligning with all but one of both fighters UFC performances.
Adam Fugitt +255 vs Yusaku Kinoshita -335
At 6-1, Kinoshita is untested but dangerous. Fugitt lost his UFC debut by TKO, but is taking a small step down from Morales to Yusaku. We’re taking Kinoshita, and considering this fight a value bet. Steer clear of the parlay on this one, in spite of Kinoshita’s big favorite status.
Anshul Jubli -110 vs Jeka Saragih -110
Jubli had a hell of a fight back in October, absorbing 100 significant strikes and winning by split decision to retain his undefeated status. Jeka is a proven finisher that has seen tough fights at 13-2, and it’s difficult to compare their experience since they have no common opponents.
We’re going with the seemingly superior striker in Jeka, and avoiding the prop bets on this one. Jubli’s strikes absorbed in his first real test was 7.5 per minute, far too high to stay standing against Saragih.
Lee Jeong-Yeong -250 vs Yi Zha +200
This is a great matchup for fight fans. Lee has some fantastic BJJ from bottom position that should make the incredible grappler that is Zha tentative to pressure the takedown.
Lee has finishing power from everywhere, so Zha fans should look to the under props for best results. We’re taking the Lee money line and considering it as part of a parlay and one of our most confident UFC Fight Night 218 predictions.
Rinya Nakamura -450 vs Toshiomi Kazama +350
The undefeated Nakamura is a born finisher, 6-0 with a background in Olympic and World level wrestling. While Kazama is a quality fighter, he’s never faced a grappler like this.
Kazama has the best record of anyone Nakamura has faced, so stay away from the tempting Nakamura by submission or TKO, -150. The UFC Fight Night 218 odds for Nakamura by finish are among the best on the card despite this being his first true UFC performance.
Hyun Sung Park -190 vs SeungGuk Choi +155
In another finisher vs decision fighter match up, we see Choi outpointing the favorite. Park has higher strikes absorbed overall, and the conservative style of Choi and considerably better chin should result in his controlling the fight.
Ji Yeon Kim -285 vs Mandy Bohm +230
The favorite is 1-5 in her UFC appearances since 2018. She’s taking a massive step down in competition to Bohm, who hasn’t seen a UFC win despite coming in undefeated.
Kim has won three fights in the UFC and had two fight of the night performances, and there’s no telling if Bohm has the chin to put up with 100+ significant strikes in three rounds. Bet the favorite, skip the props.
Jun Yong Park -240 vs Denis Tiuliulin +190
Park is a big favorite because of Denis’ history of losing to grapplers, both in and out of the UFC. Yes, Denis has knockout power but Park’s two or more takedowns per fight feel inevitable. The Over 1.5 rounds is interesting at -220.
Given they have similar odds, we’re torn between the Park money line and Over prop bet. We moved to Park by submission or decision at -150 because of its overall value.
Tatsuro Taira submits CJ Vergara
A beautiful transition from the back to the armbar
He faces Jesus Aguilar this weekend. pic.twitter.com/cupFjAVMxd
— Ocelot MMA (@Ocelot_MMA) February 1, 2023
Jesus Santos Aguilar +750 vs Tatsuro Taira -1400
We continue to be stoked for Taira fights. He’s a fun fighter to watch, and he remains undefeated for a reason. At -1400, he’s a smidge overvalued, but we’ll still take the win and tack it onto our weekly parlay.
UFC Fight Night 218 Integrates Road to UFC Fighters
Despite being in Las Vegas, we see eight fighters from the Road to UFC Chinese MMA show being highlighted. They’re still mostly fighting each other, because the UFC doesn’t know what to do with or how to match these fighters with each division.
It will be difficult for analysts and bettors as well, given they don’t have common opponents with the current UFC roster. Watch these Road to UFC fighters closely, and learn everything you can about their style to make educated bets in the future.
