EURO 2024 Quarterfinals Odds and Predictions: Who Will Progress?

It feels like EURO 2024 started yesterday, but we now have betting odds for the quarterfinals! I dissect the markets of the top soccer betting sites in pursuit of the best bets for the upcoming knockout matches.

In this article, you will find my analysis of all encounters and predictions for the EURO 2024 quarterfinals. Before I dive deep into the games, here’s an overview of the odds and my top betting picks for the Last 8:

Spain vs. Germany Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

The bookies see this one as a coin flip, and I can understand why. Spain and Germany have been among the best teams in the tournament so far. Both sides won their preliminary groups and progressed with regular time wins in the Last 16.

I was especially impressed with how Spain handled Georgia after going 1-0 down early in the match. The favorites calmly pressured the opposition to eventually win by 4-1, without much of a hassle.

I had my doubts about this Spanish side before the start of the tournament, but they are the real deal. Gone are the days of meaningless possession and lack of clear-cut chances.

Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal provide penetration, boldness, and ability well beyond their years from both flanks. Rodri, Pedri, and Ruiz control the middle of the park, while the defensive unit works really well.

The only weak side of this team is Alvaro Morata. The striker has been decent so far in the tournament, but I still doubt his efficiency in front of goal. However, Spain has more than enough players to score outside of him.

On the other side, we have a German side that is hard to evaluate. The hosts look good for large periods of their games, but they were in trouble against Switzerland and got lucky against Denmark.

The Scandinavians almost took the lead against Germany in the Last 16, before VAR intervened twice in a minute to deny them a goal and punish a handball with a penalty. The Danish coach was furious after the game, but Germany won’t care a bit.

And yet, the hosts can be inconsistent at times and Spain has the players to punish them. It should be close, but not as close as the odds suggest. Spain has been better so far, and I’m happy to take the +165 available for them to win in regular time.

Portugal vs. France Odds, Predictions, and Betting Pick

I picked Slovenia to eliminate Portugal in the previous round and almost got a +500 winner! Diogo Costa’s heroics saved the favorites, after the goalkeeper saved a critical one-on-one against Sesko in extra time and all three penalties in the shootout that followed!

Costa became the first goalie to save three penalties in the same game in the tournament’s history. However, his performance couldn’t mask Portugal’s issues.

For a start, Ronaldo shouldn’t be starting for them, let alone playing for 120 minutes. This team needs a hungry and energetic striker who can make the defense work, opening up space for the world-class wingers and midfielders around him.

The veteran simply can’t do that nowadays, but Roberto Martinez doesn’t look ready to leave him on the bench and use him as a super sub.

As a result, Portugal is very static and struggles to create enough clear opportunities to score. This will be a huge problem against the best defense in the tournament.

France has a world-class defensive unit and goalie. I expect them to suffocate Portugal in the same manner as Slovenia did. Just sit in a comfortable mid-block and soak the pressure.

My concerns for France are on the other end of the pitch. A quick look at the latest EURO 2024 XG stats shows that this is the most inefficient team in terms of scoring. Deschamps’ side has generated 6.8 expected goals but only found the net three times so far.

Furthermore, France required a lucky own goal to eliminate Belgium, despite dominating the game and creating enough chances to score.

The situation is baffling, considering the world-class talent in the squad. I believe Kylian Mbappe’s injury in the opening clash disrupted the attack’s rhythm. Can France regain their mojo before it’s too late?

Their attacking players are too good for this slump to continue. On top of that, they have the best defense in the tournament, so they don’t need to score a ton to eliminate Portugal. I don’t trust Roberto Martinez to get the best out of his team in this match.

France should be able to win and getting +135 for them is one of the best bets for the quarterfinals.

England vs. Switzerland Betting Odds, Predictions, and Pick

I said before the tournament that I don’t trust England because they have one of the worst coaches in EURO 2024. Since then, arguably the most talented and expensive squad in the competition has played Serbia, Denmark, Slovenia, and Slovakia, winning only one of these games.

England had to rely on a miracle goal from Jude Bellingham in the 5^th minute of extra time against Slovakia to survive after failing to muster a shot on target before that point.

This team has been clueless in EURO 2024. Only the individual qualify of the players has helped England reach this point. Something has to change, but Gareth Southgate is not the coach who can find the right formula.

The ball moves slowly, the players are not sure what to do, there’s no balance in this team, and the attitude towards English fans is abysmal. The players and the coach constantly paint themselves as victims, but the reality is that they haven’t been good enough and people rightfully criticize them for that. Some humility is in place, but we haven’t seen it.

The worst part is that England always lets the other team have the initiative after taking the lead. We saw that against Slovakia, when the favorites had to work very hard to get ahead, only to let the opposition have the ball and create a few chances at 2-1 in extra time.

This won’t work against better teams, and Switzerland certainly is one. Granit Xhaka and his teammates just eliminated Italy in the Last 16 to stay unbeaten in the tournament.

This Swiss group is very dangerous and has displayed the best chemistry in the tournament, in my opinion. All players know their roles and the understanding between them is almost telepathic.

Add some experience, quality, and energy to the mixture, and you have a team that’s very hard to beat. I really fancy Switzerland’s chance against England, so I’m shocked to see that you can get +280 for the Swiss to win in regular time.

The odds are plain wrong and almost entirely based on reputation and history. The Swiss have been much better so far in the tournament. Sure, England can always win based on individual talent, but the value is on Switzerland.

Netherlands vs. Turkey Odds, Predictions, and Betting Picks

The outcome of this match depends almost entirely on what version of the Netherlands shows up. I expected from the Dutch to have one of the best defenses in the entire tournament before EURO 2024 started.

They disappointed in the group stage, allowing four goals and way too many chances for the opposition. However, the team improved dramatically against Romania, keeping a clean sheet with ease and hitting the Balkan side with deadly counters to win 3-0.

If the Netherlands are on the same level defensively against Turkey, they should win. Furthermore, the underdog just played an exhausting game against Austria and lost Ismail Yuksek and Orkun Kokcu for the Last 8.

Both players are suspended, which will create lots of problems for head coach Vincenzo Montella. He will be able to rely on Hakan Calhanoglu and Samet Akaydin, who will return after serving their own suspensions, but I’m still worried about the Turkish side.

They don’t have enough depth to cope with the fatigue and will struggle in the middle of the park. On the bright side, it feels like this team is playing at home. According to Wikipedia, at least 4.2 million people in Germany either have a Turkish citizenship or come from a Turkish descent.

The number is not important, but what happens on the stands is!

The strong support, the team spirit, and the quality of some of the younger players like Kenan Yıldız and Arda Guller make Turkey a dangerous opponent.

That’s why I’m reluctant to back the Dutch for a straight win. I expect the Netherlands to qualify, but it won’t be easy. Turkey will give them a proper fight, so the value here is on the draw.