- The Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama has pulled away from Chet Holmgren in the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year race.
- Wembanyama’s 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year odds have skyrocketed over the last month.
- The 7-foot-4 French phenom is averaging more points, rebounds, and blocks than his preseason projections.
Following a two-player race between the Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama and Thunder’s Chet Holmgren, Wembanyama has established himself as the odds-on favorite to win the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year award.
According to Bovada, Wembanyama is a -600 betting favorite to win top rookie honors in the NBA this season. Per Wembanyama’s implied probability, he has an 85.7 percent chance to win Rookie of the Year.
Wembanyama opened the season as a -205 favorite. Since then, it has been like a roller coaster throughout the regular season. Wembanyama lost his standing as the favorite in early December. Then, with Holmgren surging with the Thunder, he was as much as a -240 favorite in January.
Toward the end of the January, the NBA Rookie of the Year odds shifted squarely in Wembanyama’s direction. Then, Wembanyama entered February as a -250 favorite, and his odds exploded going into the NBA All-Star break.
Wemby’s Triple Double With Blocks Send ROY Odds Flying
It was the first triple-double that included 10 blocks since the Atlanta Hawks’ Clint Capela’s 13 points, 19 rebounds, and 10 rebounds against the Minnesota Timberwolves on January 22, 2021.
Additionally, Wembanyama joined rare company alongside Hall of Fame players David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon. They are the only NBA players to score at least 25 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and 10 blocks in a game.
With that in mind, two Gregg Popovich-coached Spurs make up two-thirds of that illustrious short list. As long as the 75-year-old Popovich doesn’t retire, he is likely to be present for many more Wembanyama milestones.
Prior to this incredible achievement, Wembanyama was -250 to win the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year award. Following the game against the Raptors, Wembanyama’s Rookie of the Year odds rose exponentially to -500, and now -600.
Holmgren remains with the second-best NBA Rookie of the Year odds entering the season half of the season. Currently, at Bovada, Holmgren is +450, while the Hornets’ Brandon Miller is well off the pace at +15000.
Exceeding Preseason Betting Site Projections
Online betting released a series of Wembanyama prop bets before the season got underway in October. Bettors could wager on a variety of different accomplishments.
Now, with two months remaining in the regular season, several of his bets have already cashed or are on pace to cash. For instance, Wembanyama has recorded a triple-double (+350), 20+ rebounds (+250), and 35+ points in a single game (+125).
At plus-odds, oddsmakers gave Wembanyama less than a 50 percent chance to post them all. Fast-forward to the NBA All-Star break, and Wembanyama has had two triple-double performances, a 20-rebound game, and scored more than 30 points in a game.
Additionally, Wembanyama is on pace to hit the ‘Over’ on several of his prop bets for season averages. Currently, Wembanyama is averaging 20.5 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 3.2 blocks per game. That puts him over 20+ points (+120), 9+ rebounds (+115), and 3+ blocks (+115).
Again, in the preseason, BetUS has Wembanyama at plus-odds to accomplish these incredible feats. For instance, the 20+ points prop bet, at +115 odds, indicates an implied probability of 46.5 percent to score more than 20 points per game in 2023-24.
If Wembanyama maintains his consistent and steady pace, he is well on his way to breaking every one of these metrics. With a record of 11-45, the Spurs haven’t had team success, but are sure to add another top prospect in the 2024 NBA Draft to pair with Wemby next season.
