2023-24 NFL Divisional Round Odds and Predictions

After an exhilarating Wild Card Weekend, the postseason continues with the highly anticipated NFL Divisional Round for the right to play for the conference championships.

We are analyzing the latest 2023-24 NFL Divisional Round lines at NFL betting sites and revealing our best 2023-24 NFL Divisional Round predictions.

In addition to our NFL Divisional Round predictions against the spread, we have moneyline betting and Over-Under betting picks for this weekend. Also, don’t forget about our top NFL Divisional Round prop bets and best parlay pick below.

NFL Divisional Round Odds

The following NFL Divisional Round odds are courtesy of Bovada:

In the NFL Wild Card Round, the Green Bay Packers were impressive in a 48-32 victory over the Dallas Cowboys. However, football betting sites are not giving them much respect as double-digit underdogs against the 49ers.

Elsewhere, the Baltimore Ravens are comfortable favorites after their bye week. It will be interesting to see if Houston Texans’ QB C.J. Stroud can stay hot as the stakes get higher in the NFL Divisional Round.

Oddsmakers are predicting closer games in Buffalo and Detroit for what should be entertaining matchups.

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Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds

The Texans are expected to be a heavily backed road underdog in the NFL Divisional Round. Following Stroud’s masterclass against the Cleveland Browns, the expectation here is for the Texans to walk into Baltimore and give the Ravens a tough game.

They’ve already sliced up the Browns’ top-rated defense, so why not the Ravens? In Stroud’s first playoff game on the road, this is likely going to be a different kind of test. The Browns were out of sorts from the opening kickoff at NRG Stadium.

We don’t expect the Ravens to be so unprepared for Stroud at home. The Browns were just 3-5 on the road this season. John Harbaugh’s squad is 3-0 as a home favorite in 2023-24. With extra preparation time, look for the Ravens to frustrate Stroud and the Texans.

Stroud will win a round or two against Lamar Jackson in the future, but not this time. We like the Ravens’ defense to smother Stroud, while Jackson exploits the Texans. The Harbaugh brothers’ double championship bet remains alive and well.

Texans vs. Ravens Predictions:

• Point Spread Bet: Baltimore Ravens -9.5 (-110)
• Moneyline Bet: Baltimore Ravens (-420)
• Over-Under Bet: Over 46 (-110)

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Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds

The 49ers are favored, and predicted by many people, to win Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas, Nevada. However, the 49ers have a tough assignment against a confident Packers team coming into Levi’s Stadium.

Like the Texans, the Packers have a young QB peaking at the right time. Jordan Love and Stroud both torched their opponents in the NFL Wild Card Round. If the Ravens take away Nico Collins, they should be in good shape.

However, taking away Love’s No. 1 target doesn’t necessarily mean the offense should have significant issues. Luke Musgrave and Dontayvion Wicks are both coming on late in the year. Also, the Packers’ defense has been one of the most underrated units in the NFL.

Now that Love and the offense have caught up to the defensive production, they’re playing like a contender. Brock Purdy and the 49ers should prevail, but the Packers keep it within double digits.

Packers vs. 49ers Predictions:

• Point Spread Bet: Green Bay Packers +10 (-115)
• Moneyline Bet: San Francisco 49ers (-460)
• Over-Under Bet: Under 50.5 (-115)

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions

Last week, we cashed in on the Lions’ moneyline (-180) and Rams +3.5 (-115) in a 24-23 final for Detroit. In the NFL Divisional Round, we’re applying similar logic, with the Lions emerging with the outright win, but the Buccaneers covering.

While the energy from the crowd at Ford Field should propel the Lions to a win, the shaky secondary has a difficult assignment versus the Buccaneers. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both in line for big plays downfield from Baker Mayfield.

The Eagles without A.J. Brown would have been a better matchup for the Lions. Last weekend, Matthew Stafford was connecting downfield with his targets. Rams’ receiver Puka Nacua had a monster game in the Wild Card Round.

With that in mind, Mayfield should have opportunities for success in the passing game. The Buccaneers’ offensive line gave him a lot of time to throw against the Eagles. In any event, Dan Campbell should have his guys ready to run through a brick wall on Sunday afternoon.

The Lions will make just enough plays to win, but not cover at home.

Buccaneers vs. Lions Predictions:

• Point Spread Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 (-110)
• Moneyline Bet: Detroit Lions (-275)
• Over-Under Bet: Under 48.5 (-115)

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

The Chiefs and Bills meet in what is expected to be a close one. The NFL Divisional Round odds suggest that the Chiefs vs. Bills should go down to the wire at Highmark Stadium.

This is not going to be an easy trip for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to Orchard Park. They looked impressive against the Miami Dolphins, but Josh Allen is at home and playing at a high level. Nevertheless, the defensive injuries are adding up for the Bills, especially at linebacker.

The Bills had all backup linebackers in the game in the second half against the Steelers. Despite Mason Rudolph struggling earlier in the game, he settled down and started to get comfortable across the middle of the field with his receivers.

That’s not what the Bills need with Mahomes and Travis Kelce up next on the schedule with the Chiefs having two more days to prepare. The Chiefs are still Mahomes’ team, but the defense has been the catalyst. They were impressive again last week in the 26-7 win over the Dolphins.

Allen will make plays, but expect the Chiefs’ defense to do enough to frustrate him. As slight underdogs, the Chiefs have some value on the road.

Chiefs vs. Bills Predictions:

• Point Spread Bet: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 (+100)
• Moneyline Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (+130)
• Over-Under Bet: Over 46 (-110)

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Best NFL Divisional Round Prop Bets

Let’s flush out the best NFL Divisional Round prop bets for each matchup this week. We have our best prop bet for each game on the schedule:

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Over 225.5 (-115)

In our opinion, this number appears a touch too low on Jackson’s passing yardage prop bet against the Texans. When he wants to throw the ball, Jackson has had plenty of success this season.

In three of his previous six games, Jackson passed for a minimum of 252 yards. Dating back to November 16, he’s thrown for more than 225 yards in four of six games. Overall, Jackson has logged 3,678 yards passing in 16 starts¹.

The Texans are a favorable matchup for Jackson, as they haven’t been the best team in pass coverage. DeMeco Ryans is making strides with the defense, but the secondary is 24th against the pass, with 235.9 yards conceded per game².

Aaron Jones Total Receptions Over 3.5 (+105)

Veteran running back Aaron Jones is the leader of the Packers’ offense. Despite losing Aaron Rodgers and other solid veterans, Jones has remained with the Packers.

In a game against an aggressive defensive team like the 49ers, expect Love to dump the ball off underneath to Jones often. He has good hands and the ability to turn a short reception into a big play.

In 11 regular season games, Jones was reliable as a pass catcher. He finished with 30 receptions and 233 yards in the passing game³.

In a blowout against the Cowboys, Jones wasn’t needed as a receiver. However, that will change in the NFL Divisional Round at San Francisco.

Lions To Win By 1-6 Points (+280)

Since we like the Lions to win, but the Buccaneers to cover +6 points, it makes a lot of sense to consider this prop bet. At +280, you are getting a lot of value if you agree on a close win for the Lions.

Mayfield likely hits Detroit’s secondary with a big play or two, but the Motor City should be rocking again on Sunday. The Lions make a critical stop late in regulation to stop the Buccaneers for a four-point win over the Bucs at Ford Field.

Stefon Diggs Total Receptions Over 5.5 (-135)

Diggs is coming off a standout performance against the Steelers. He didn’t catch a touchdown, and hasn’t in seven games, but finding the sticks and picking up key first downs was important in the winning effort.

The 30-year-old Pro Bowl wide receiver hauled in seven receptions and 52 yards in the win. It’s the second consecutive game that Diggs has come up big in a marquee game.

A week earlier, Diggs had seven receptions and 87 yards in a matchup for the AFC East title⁴. We expect Allen to look in Diggs’ direction throughout this one at home. He should eclipse this prop for at least six receptions.

Best Bets NFL Divisional Round

As the card gets smaller in the postseason, we have fewer options for NFL Divisional Round lines. Nevertheless, we’ve identified two top wagers for our NFL Divisional Round predictions:

Packers (+10) at 49ers

While we like the 49ers’ odds to win it all at Super Bowl betting sites, they are likely to face a couple of tough spots along the way. Right out of the gate in their playoff game, the 49ers have a difficult assignment against a confident Packers team.

With wins in seven of their last 10 games, the Packers are not in the NFL Divisional Round because of a fluke. The slow start to the season was accredited to the youth on their offense. Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson are all 25 or younger.

In Love’s first season under center, it was going to take a minute for the offense to warm up. Now, the Packers are on fire following a 48-point performance against the Cowboys. The 49ers’ aggressive defense won’t be simple to solve, but Love has 10 points to work with as an underdog.

After a win this season, the Packers are 6-3 against the spread (ATS). As an underdog, they’ve been one of the best bets in the NFL at 7-4 ATS. We like the 49ers to win, but the Packers to cover the point spread at Levi’s Stadium.

Bills at Chiefs (Over 46)

The weather is expected to be much nicer in Buffalo after the Wild Card Round matchup was pushed back by a day. Currently, the forecast calls for partly cloudy, no snow, and limited wind. So, weather shouldn’t be a factor for the Divisional Round in Buffalo.

A rash of defensive injuries for the Bills should impact the game, though. As we noted, the Bills were running out of bodies at linebacker and corner, but fortunately were dealing with a third-team QB and mediocre Steelers’ offense.

The Bills could have been in some trouble against a better QB. While the Chiefs’ offense has operated in slow motion for most of the season, Mahomes should connect often with Kelce across the middle of the field. Defending crossing patterns has been a problem without Matt Milano.

Last month, the Bills held the Chiefs to 17 points in a 20-17 win at Arrowhead. However, Kelce and Rashee Rice had big games. With defensive injuries a concern for the Bills, they should pick up where they left off.

Allen and the Bills aren’t going down easily, despite a tough showdown versus the Chiefs’ defense. Stefon Diggs will pull down a couple of timely catches for the Bills. The Over is the best bet in Buffalo.

Best NFL Divisional Round Parlay

To wrap up our 2023-24 NFL Divisional Round picks, we are locking in our best parlay bet at Bovada. This parlay combines all four of our NFL Divisional Round picks against the spread. 

The following NFL Divisional Round parlay includes potential winnings of $1,262.77 on a $100 wager at Bovada:

• Baltimore Ravens -9.5 (-110)
• Green Bay Packers +10 (-115)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 (-110)
• Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 (+100)

NFL Divisional Round Schedule