NASCAR Best Bets For Week of July 24

On July 30^th, Richmond Speedway will host the 22nd NASCAR Cup Series race of the season -the Cook Out 400. Following a controversial finish at Pocono Raceway, the Cup Series is in Virginia for a short-track oval race.

Last week, Kyle Larson was well on his way to winning his third race of the season at Pocono. However, Denny Hamlin ran Larson into the wall with less than ten laps remaining in the race. Hamlin’s aggressive strategy worked, as he took the checkered flag under showers of boos and jeers.

Richmond is one of three short-track races on the Cup Series schedule. At 0.75 miles, Richmond Raceway is the longest of three, with Martinsville the shortest race at 0.526 miles. This is the first short-track event since Larson won at Martinsville in April.

Will Larson be able to bounce back this week after being wrecked at Pocono? Let’s take a look at the latest Cook Out 400 odds and prop bets, courtesy of the best NASCAR betting sites.

NASCAR Best Bets for Richmond Speedway

The following NASCAR Richmond odds are courtesy of BetUS:

Richmond Top 10 Finish Prop Bets

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We have three drivers that we really like to finish in the Top 10 at Richmond this weekend:

Brad Keselowski (+125)

Keselowski had an adequate performance last week at Pocono. Pocono Raceway has never exactly been a strong track for Keselowski. The P16 finish wasn’t too surprising for him after a solid outing at New Hampshire.

Keselowski had a Top 5 attempt at New Hampshire Motor Speedway two weeks ago. New Hampshire does not technically qualify as a short-track, but the small 1.058-mile track sure races like one.

Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski are likely to make the playoffs on points. Does it matter if they make it on points or a win? What they said: pic.twitter.com/6bl0ZJmMlC

— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) July 23, 2023

The 39-year-old native of Rochester Hills, Michigan, has traditionally had success on short tracks. We had a Top 10 bet on Keselowski at New Hampshire, and are looking to do the same for this true short-track race in Virginia.

Keselowski has two wins in his 14-year career at Richmond Speedway. He was crowned the champ in 2014 and then again six years later in 2020. From 2016 to 2020, Keselowski finished in the Top 10 in seven of eight races.

In the first stop at Richmond this season, Keselowski booked a solid performance with a P10 finish. He was P9 and P6 following the first two stages of the race. He was in contention throughout that race in April. Additionally, Keselowski had his best driver rating at Richmond since 2020¹.

Keselowski to finish in the Top 10 on a short-track, with plus betting odds, is always a strong bet. Give him some consideration for the Cook Out 400 on Sunday afternoon at Richmond.

Chase Elliott (-140)

After missing the start of the season, Chase Elliott is attempting to get into the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. He is seven races behind the rest of the field.

Currently, Elliott is 21st with 399 points and outside of the playoff picture². Last week at Pocono, Elliott got off to a rough start in qualifying, but worked his way up from the back of the grid to finish in the Top 10.

Another one loses control off of the Tunnel Turn!

This time it's @chaseelliott! #BuschLightPole pic.twitter.com/kjuXDr9Kmh

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) July 22, 2023

Elliott will likely need to win a race to get into the Playoffs. He’s winless through 14 races, but if there is any driver without a win that can get to Victory Lane, it’s Elliott. Despite conceding his regular season championship, Elliott isn’t out of the 2023 Cup Series Championship race yet.

Richmond Raceway could be the place where Elliott finally gets back to Victory Lane for the first time in 2023. He has not won a race since October 2, 2022, at Talladega Superspeedway³. Wins have escaped Elliott at Richmond Speedway, but it hasn’t been in the absence of quality attempts.

Elliott was the runner-up in this race in 2018. Since then, the No. 9 car grabbed five Top 10 finishes in nine races at Richmond Speedway. He missed the first race here earlier this season, but had a productive showing last year.

Elliott finished P5 for his second Top 5 finish at Richmond in three races⁴. This has been consistent with Elliott’s work on short tracks recently. Including Richmond, Martinsville, and Bristol, Elliott has five straight Top 10 efforts on a short-track⁵.

There is plenty of value with this Elliott prop bet. It would have been nice to get closer to even money, but his true odds for a Top 10 finish should be -160 to -170. Add Elliott to our NASCAR best bets card for this week at Richmond Speedway.

Joey Logano (-150)

Like most experienced stock car drivers, Logano grew up on local short tracks. Logano feels at home at a track like Richmond Speedway. In 14 years, Logano has two wins in his Cup Series career here.

Just two wins is surprising because Logano is always threatening on this track. Logano has multiple Top 3 finishes at Richmond, including back-to-back P3 starts in 2020 and 2021. He has been no stranger to being the most consistent driver at 0.75 miles.

Since 2014, Logano has incredibly finished in the Top 10 in 15 races. Logano missed the Top 10 in only three events during that stretch. Across his previous six starts, Logano has five performances in the Top 10 at Richmond Speedway.

On this day in 2014, Joey Logano won at Richmond! pic.twitter.com/gAzM23leAS

— NASCAR PICTURES (@Nascarpixtures) April 26, 2023

Last year, Logano posted an insane driver rating of 131.4. He led 222 laps and won Stage 2. However, he ultimately tailed off to finish P6 for Team Penske⁶. Regardless of failing to win, Logano had himself a day.

Similar to Elliott, Logano has some of his best success at short tracks. In his latest short-track start, he was the runner-up at Martinsville in April. Logano started in the rear of the field and was down a lap at one point⁷.

Richmond Raceway is a track that requires a plethora of talent to be successful. Logano has the talent to put in another Top 10 performance in Virginia. He’s a good bet to make it happen at -140 odds.

NASCAR Richmond Head-to-Head Group Prop Bets

Martin Truex Jr. is favored to win the Cook Out 400 at +405 odds. Those are short odds to win a Cup Series race. It isn’t often that a favorite has these high of odds to win a race in NASCAR other than Elliott on a road course.

There is little value on Truex Jr. to win outright at +405, though. That being said, Truex Jr. has value in this driver’s group prop bet at BetUS. There are a few more sports betting sites that offer head-to-head and group wagering as well.

Rather than betting on Truex Jr. to win, you can get good value on him to beat three opponents. Denny Hamlin, Larson, and Christopher Bell should provide tough competition, but Truex Jr. should finish at the top of this group.

Hamlin is going to have a bullseye on his car at Richmond Speedway on Sunday. After running Larson into the wall last week, expect drivers to take an aggressive stance with Hamlin. Especially in a short-track race where there isn’t much room, Hamlin is likely to be under pressure.

Since 2019, Truex Jr. has won three races at Richmond Raceway. He swept with two wins in 2019 and then sped back to Victory Lane in 2021. In his previous nine starts at Richmond, Truex has finished in the Top 5 in seven events⁸.

Look for Truex Jr. to have the edge in this group. While there is better value on the board to win the Cook Out 400, Truex Jr. is a terrific value bet at +200 odds over this trio.

2023 NASCAR Richmond Odds and Race Winner

After handicapping the Cook Out 400 grid, there is one driver that stands out with the best value. We have already recommended betting on Logano to finish in the Top 10, and we see him being a top contender to win as well.

You can bet on Logano to finish in the Top 10 for a bit of insurance, but should also consider wagering on the No. 22 to win outright. As we noted, Logano loves whenever a short track comes up on the schedule.

Trouble in Turn 1! 🟡@joeylogano and @Daniel_SuarezG are involved! pic.twitter.com/cJr4MMDtx3

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) July 23, 2023

He is as steady as they come on these tracks. After running into bad luck in an accident last week, expect Logano to bounce back with a much better effort.

Despite the rough outing, Logano is in solid position in the Cup Series standings. Two weeks ago, he was rock solid to finish in the runner-up position behind Truex Jr. at New Hampshire.

Entering Richmond Speedway, Logano is ninth with a win and six Top 5 finishes this season⁹. In his last two outings at Richmond, he finished P6 and P7. Last year, he led 222 laps with a superb driver rating.

In his latest attempt on a short-track, Logano just missed out on an epic comeback after starting at the back of the field. However, he settled for a respectable P2 at Martinsville. At +1200 odds, Logano is well worth considering as the Cook Out 400 race winner.