- Winner of the 2023 National League Cy Young Award, Blake Snell, is a free agent a month from the start of the regular season.
- Snell rejected a $20.325 million qualifying offer from the San Diego Padres to remain a free agent.
- Online betting markets favor the New York Yankees to sign Snell.
As MLB Spring Training gets underway, NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell is still without a club. After spending three years as a pitcher with the San Diego Padres, Snell is seeking a massive contract and a new place to call home for the near future. Per “next team” odds at BetOnline, Snell is a -150 favorite to sign with the New York Yankees.
On Sunday, MLB Network’s Mark Feinsand reported that the Yankees have offered Snell a contract. There hasn’t been an immediate response from Snell’s camp, but it did result in the Yankees’ odds shortening. Before this news broke, the Yankees were +175 to sign Snell.
Albeit, at +175, the Yankees were still favorites to convince Snell to sign on the dotted line.
The odds moved from +175 to -150, which affords the Yankees an implied probability of 60 percent to get a deal done.
Snell Reportedly Rejected Yankees’ Five-Year, $150 Million Offer
Reportedly, this isn’t the first time the Yankees have attempted to ink Snell in 2024. Although nothing has been confirmed, the Yankees allegedly offered a five-year $150 million contract to Scott Boras’ highly sought-after client in January.
There wasn’t any other follow-up information regarding Snell and the Yankees. Snell and Boras weren’t thrilled with $150 million, and the Yankees focused their attention on signing Marcus Stroman.
On January 11, it was reported that Stroman and the Yankees agreed on a two-year, $37 million deal. Many fans believed that was the end of the Snell to the Yankees saga. But the Bronx Bombers aren’t giving up yet and are still allegedly in the driver’s seat.
But, does the Yankees’ payroll situation allow for the club to go that much higher than a five-year, $150 contract? With Snell reportedly passing on $150 million, Boras is likely eyeing something in the ballpark of $200 million.
On February 1, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman noted that the Yankees would be willing to go higher than Carlos Rodon’s six-year, $162 million contract. Nevertheless, Boras didn’t seem willing to approve it.
Yankees’ Payroll Brought Into Question
With a contract closer to $200 million on Snell’s wish list, do the Yankees have the payroll to get a deal done? It’s going to be tricky, according to Brendan Kuty and Chris Kirschner of The Athletic.
The sticking point for the Yankees boils down to the competitive balance tax. For every dollar spent above the CBT threshold, a club would receive a 110 percent tax penalty. As reported by Kuty and Kirschner:
For example, if the Yankees were to offer Snell a one-year contract worth $40 million, they would have to pay $44 million in luxury tax penalties, bringing the total outlay to $84 million.
If Snell maintains his 2023 season form, then the Yankees might be willing to bend a little for Snell’s services. Last season, Snell posted an ERA of 2.25 with a 1.19 WHIP. In eight seasons between the Tampa Bay Rays and San Diego Padres, the lefty has a career ERA of 3.20 with a 1.24 WHIP.
That said, nothing is a guarantee, and Snell wouldn’t be the first prized free agent to falter in New York. Sonny Gray struggled and fizzled out after less than two seasons in the Bronx, while Rodon was shaky in his first year with the Yankees.
Angels’ Odds For Snell On The Move
In addition to the Yankees’ odds shifting from +175 to -150, the Angels witnessed noticeable movement. Before this past weekend, the Angels had the fourth-best odds to sign Snell.
The Angels went from owning the fourth-best odds (+700) to the second-best odds. At +300, Snell has an implied probability of 25 percent to land in Anaheim with the Angels. That’s an improvement from a 12.5 percent chance a week earlier.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants went from the second-best odds at +400 to the fourth-best odds at +500. The Seattle Mariners (+450) currently have the third-shortest odds, behind the Yankees and Angels.
If the Yankees and Snell can’t come to terms on a contract, the Angels appear willing to settle. As the regular season continues to approach, Boras and Snell might feel inclined to take the best offer on the table rather than wait it out for much longer.
