The 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup Quarterfinals did not disappoint. We had some thrilling action and some mild upsets that have set the stage for the Semifinals, which begin on August 15.
Our rate of accuracy with our predictions thus far, have been on point in both the Quarterfinals and from the Round of 16 as well. We’ll look to replicate that success as we break down the Spain/Sweden and England/Australia Semifinal matchups this week.
A friendly reminder that from this point forward, matches cannot end in a draw. If the two teams are tied at the end of the regulation (90 minutes), thirty minutes of extra-time will be followed by the penalty shootout. Our odds and betting analysis will reflect this.
Let’s take a look at the latest Semifinal odds from the top Women’s World Cup betting sites, and make our predictions as to which teams will advance to the 2023 FIFA World Cup Finals on Sunday, August 20.
Spain (+110) vs. Sweden (+250)
Tuesday, August 15th
It is tough to go against Sweden, given how good they’ve been to us in this tournament. We picked them to beat the USA and to get by Japan, but the run for the veteran Swedes should come to a crashing halt in the Semifinals.
They’ve yet to play a side with the talent and skill of Spain, and given the current form of La Roja, look for the impressive Spaniards to continue their run to Sunday’s World Cup Final.
This Spanish side coasted through the Group Stage and decimated the Swiss 5-1 back in the round of 16. Although they needed extra time to take down the Dutch in the QF, there really wasn’t ever any doubt that Spain would find a winner.
Jorge Vilda’s side were clearly the best in that match, generating a ton of possession and chances at goal throughout the duration of the game.
Now, they’ll take on a team that plays similar to the Dutch side that they just beat, though one with arguably less talent and finishing prowess. Yet, somehow, Spain has more favorable odds in this clash.
The Swedes have limped through their games thus far, narrowly advancing past the United States on penalties, before taking down a pesky Japanese group where they were heavily outplayed in the second half.
Stina Blackstenius has been intriguing up front, but lacks support from those around her. Their defense is impressive, but it’s tough to envision this squad opening up their tactics and finding goals, if needed.
Stina Blackstenius = Big game player. 😎🔥
Will she be the difference for Sweden in the Semi-Final? 🇸🇪#FIFAWWC | #BeyondGreatness
— FIFA Women’s World Cup (@FIFAWWC) August 13, 2023
Spain enters this round as the current World Cup betting favorites and for good reason. After all, Vilda said from the outset of this tournament that his group was “unmatched” with their quality.
The Swedes are organized and play good team defense, but they’re an older group that has played a lot of soccer already in this tournament. Though they have just conceded two goals all tournament, the Spanish are dynamic in the midfield and their possession and passing skills should really unlock a tight Swedish back line across ninety minutes.
Ballon d’Or holder Alexia Putellas has regained her impressive form for the Spanish and her passing and scoring ability should really give the back four of Sweden massive troubles.
This veteran Swedish group has spent a lot of time chasing the ball and defending thus far at the World Cup, and we think it catches up with them in a bad way on Tuesday. Look for an explosive Spain offense to secure a comfortable victory over an aging Swedish group inside 90 minutes. We love Spain’s value at -110 odds with the top soccer betting sites.
Australia (+230) vs. England (+125)
Wednesday, August 16th
After some bumps in the group stage, the host Australians have rebounded nicely to progress in the tournament. They played a perfect match against an upstart Denmark side in the Round of 16, showing some good team defense and clinical finishing in the process. In the Quarterfinals, they entered as sizeable underdogs and prevailed on penalties over France.
Australia was clearly been the second-best side for much of that match, and though France couldn’t find the back of the net, a talented Lionesses group could exploit some of the weaknesses they showed.
As such, we expect the impressive hometown party to come to a halt on Wednesday as England hasn’t been as explosive as many would have figured, but they’ve been nearly impossible to beat.
The English have been tenacious without the ball and defend better than anyone left in the tournament. Head coach Sarina Wiegman has pressed all of the right buttons for her deep group and might look to implement some squad rotation for some fresh legs and energy.
Between the pipes for England, Mary Earps has been outstanding. This is a deep roster, loaded with experience and ball-winners throughout the lineup. England has excellent ball recovery stats and look for this squad to have a real go at an Australian defense that hasn’t appeared overly confident all tournament long.
Mary. Earps.
pic.twitter.com/yYerGbTc82— ruby 🤍 (@rub3z_) August 7, 2023
England dominated their Quarterfinal showdown against Colombia, despite going down early. They stormed back and completely dominated the second half. Up front, Alessia Russo and Lauren Hemp look to be the best striker tandem remaining in the tournament.
That’s a fast and physical scoring punch, and one that should cause fits for Australia’s back line, both in open play and off of set pieces as well.
The Matildas are pesky and have battled through some injuries and poor play so far this tournament. They’ve confronted the pressures of playing a home World Cup, and have learned to embrace the pressure and support. Though it’ll be a raucous atmosphere once again for the Aussies in Sydney, the English are better in every area and at every position.
Top player and striker for the Matildas, Sam Kerr, still has yet to show any signs of being able to play a full 90 minutes with her nagging calf injury. Without her game-breaking ability, it’s tough to see how the Lionesses’ defense gets troubled at all in this contest.
This England side is battle-tested and has the experience of winning last year’s European Championship. They won’t be intimidated one bit, and should find a way to find some offense inside of 90 minutes.
England might be underwhelming offensively so far, but they’ve found an unbeatable formula and concede very little chances against. Look for that recipe to once again be their key to success on Wednesday. Another great value play at soccer betting sites.
Women’s World Cup Semifinal Parlay
- Spain To Win & Both Teams To Score (+450)
- England To Win To Nil vs. Australia (+225)
Just like last round, we’ll do a small two-leg parlay featuring some of the exotic markets attached to each of the Semifinal games. These are loftier odds aside from just playing the three-way moneyline, but could have big returns if these games follow the game script we are predicting!
For Sweden/Spain, we see the Spaniards winning, but we do like the value on both teams to score. Spain has shown some slight flaws defensively, and the height advantage of some of the Swedish forwards could find a fortunate knock off a set piece.
In England vs. Australia, it’s incredibly tough to envision this hardened Lionesses squad conceding a goal given how rigid they have been defensively all tournament long.
The English win every ball in the midfield, and Mary Earps is the best shot-stopping keeper remaining in the tournament. We expect England to win via shutout over the hometown Matildas.
This two-leg parlay offers up odds of +680, meaning a $100 bettor could see profits of $680 dollars if these two wagers hit.
Sources
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4722507/2023/07/26/alexia-putellas-spain-womens-world-cup/
