Master NFL Over/Under Betting With Winning Strategies
Over/under betting is one of the most popular and fun ways to bet on football. Unlike moneylines or against-the-spread NFL wagers, it doesn’t matter which team wins or the margin of victory. In football over/under betting, all that matters is the total score.
In this over/under football betting strategy guide, we’ll cover how this type of bet works, where and how to place them, and some in-depth tips for long-term winning.
What Is Over/Under Betting in the NFL?
NFL over/unders, also known as totals, are a type of wager where bettors try to predict whether the combined score of both teams will go over or under a set number. The sportsbook determines the number, referred to as the game’s “total.”
Like moneylines, over/unders are a simple type of bet, making them an accessible choice for new bettors. In the next section, we’ll cover how to bet over and under in football.
How To Read Over/Under Odds
Two key aspects of learning how to read over/under odds are the total and the price. The total is the number the sportsbook has set for the game, while the price is how much you must risk to win a certain amount.
Over/Under Totals
For example, let’s look at a matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs. The total on this matchup is set at 46.5 points, which means bettors have two over/under betting options:
- OVER 46.5 Points
- UNDER 46.5 Points
If the final score is 24-20 in favor of the Chiefs, the combined score would be 44 (24 + 20 = 44). In that case, bets on the UNDER 46.5 points would win, since 44 is less than 46.5.
Over/Under Price
The price on over/under bets works the same way as moneylines. A “-” before a number represents how much you must bet to win $100.
In most cases, the “Over” and “Under” are both priced at –110, meaning you must bet $110 to win $100. This ratio works the same, no matter how much you bet. A $55 bet yields a potential win of $50, while an $11 bet stands to win $10.
If the price of an “Over” or “Under” has an “+” in front of it, it means the number represents how much you’ll win if you bet $100. So, if an “Under” is listed at +105, you can bet $100 to win $105.
Over/Under NFL Betting Examples?
When most people talk about what an over/under is in football, they usually mean betting on the total for the entire game. However, there are other over/under NFL betting types as well. Here are a few:
Full-Game Over/Under Betting
Full-game totals betting is the most common type of over/under betting. This total covers the entire game, including overtime.
Example: The New Orleans Saints host the Carolina Panthers with a game total set at 40.5 points.
Halves Over/Under Betting
Bettors can place bets on the totals for the first half or the second half of an NFL game. Over/under bets on the second half typically include overtime, unless otherwise stated by the sportsbook.
Example: The total for the first half between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins is set at 24.5 points.
Quarters Over/Under Betting
Over/under bets can also be placed on individual quarters. These bets are available before the game starts at some sportsbooks, and during the game at any NFL betting site that offers live betting.
Example: The total for the third quarter of the Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals game is set at 10.5 points.
Live Betting on Over/Unders
NFL live betting offers bettors the opportunity to bet on moneylines, spreads, and over/unders as the game is being played. Lines and totals are constantly being changed throughout the game based on how the action on the field is progressing.
Example: The game total for the Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts was originally set at 49 points. However, after a low scoring 3-0 in the first quarter, the adjusted game total available through NFL live betting is 40.5 points.
How To Win an NFL Over/Under Bet
When grading over/under betting in the NFL, the only thing that matters is the combined score of both teams. It doesn’t matter who wins or what their margin of victory is, only whether you correctly predicted if the combined score went over or under the posted total.
For example, here are some hypothetical scores for a game between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers, with the total set at 42 points.
- Los Angeles wins 31-10. The total combined score is 31 + 10 = 41. The UNDER 42 wins.
- Las Vegas wins 28-24. The total combined score is 28 + 24 = 52. The OVER 42 wins.
- Los Angeles wins 24-18. The total combined score is 24 + 18 = 42. The OVER 42 and UNDER 42 are both graded a push (or tie), which means the sportsbook will return all bets to the players.
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Basic Over/Under Betting Strategies
Now that you know what an over/under means in football, let’s review some tips for building an effective totals betting strategy.
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Strong bankroll management is essential for gambling responsibly. Cold streaks are a normal part of the ups and downs of the NFL betting season. So, set aside a small percentage of your bankroll for over/under betting and stick to it.
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Are Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on a red-hot streak on offense? Has the San Francisco 49ers defense been locking down opposing teams lately? Keep up with the latest trends and consider how they may affect over/under betting.
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Keeping track of key injuries can be very valuable in over/under betting. For example, a team missing its star player can have a major impact on a game and how you should bet on its total.
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Consider how a game’s location might affect over/under betting. How do the teams perform at home versus on the road? Are they playing in a dome or an open field, where inclement weather can affect offensive performances? These factors all play an important role in the scoring flow of an NFL game.
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Point spreads and totals often vary among online sportsbooks. Shop around for the best odds. Getting the OVER 46.5 instead of the OVER 46 on your over/under play could be the difference between a push and a win.
Sports Betting Guides and Other Resources From The Sports Geek
For more useful strategy guides and other resources from the betting experts at The Sports Geek, visit the pages listed below.
Advanced Over/Under Betting Strategies and Tips
Newcomers and casual bettors can benefit plenty from following the basic over/under strategy tips listed above. However, if you want to take your totals betting to the next level, here are some advanced strategy concepts to consider.
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There’s only so much you can learn from common team statistics, such as the average points scored and points allowed. Resources such as Pro Football Reference let you analyze more in-depth stats like rushing efficiency and quarterback pressure rates. Studying advanced stats like these can help you find offensive or defensive advantages for over/under betting that casual players might miss.
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There are other team factors to consider besides advanced statistics, such as their current form. For example, are they going up against a division rival who knows them well? Or is the game against an out-of-conference team who won’t have time to study them? Also consider how injuries, team motivations, and other factors beyond the stat sheet can impact the game’s flow and total.
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Totals can fluctuate throughout the week based on betting action. For example, if a total opens at 43.5 points, and the public bets heavily on the UNDER 43.5, the line may move down to 43 or 42.5. You might choose to side with the popular option or go for the newly adjusted price.
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When it comes to value betting, price makes all the difference. If there’s a 50% chance a game will go over the posted total, you’d make a profitable bet at +110 and an unprofitable one at –110. Shop for the best lines and use The Sports Geek’s Odds Calculator to determine the value of your over/under bets.
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Injuries and other in-game occurrences can make hedging a smart decision. Let’s say you have the OVER 45 in a Cincinnati Bengals game, and Joe Burrow takes a big hit in the first quarter. If the live betting total is still at 45, you may want to bet the UNDER 45 to cancel out your initial wager. For more details on this method, read our guide on hedging your bets.
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Sports bettors today have access to incredible tools and technology. For example, the NFL Next Gen Stats page has advanced statistics, charts, and play animations that can provide incredible insight into how offenses and defenses perform. Keep your eyes open for any modern resources that can help elevate your over/under betting strategies.
Key Takeaways for NFL Over/Under Betting
Over/under betting in the NFL is a simple yet exciting type of wager where the only thing that matters is accurately predicting the total combined score. This guide covered the basics for you to get started, including how to read totals and build an effective betting strategy. BetUS is our top-recommended betting site for beginners, thanks to its generous welcome bonuses and free resources. Now that you know where and how to bet on over/unders, you’re ready to try out our basic and advanced tips for yourself.
