Master Value Betting Your Guide To Finding Profitable Sports Bets

Expected Value = (Probability of Win x Total Payout for Win) + (Probability of Loss x Total Payout for Loss)

• Positive EV: A wager that is projected to be profitable in the long run
• Negative EV: A wager that is projected to lose money in the long run
• Fair or Neutral EV: A wager that is projected to break even in the long run

Suppose you bet $100 to win $100 on heads at +100 across 100 coin flips. If 50 flips land on heads and 50 flips land on tails:

• • 50 Heads Wins = $5,000 ($100 x 50)
  • 50 Heads Losses = -$5,000 (-$100 x 50)
  • Net Wins $5,000 – Net Losses $5,000 = $0 total

This is a break-even proposition with a fair or neutral expected value. Over the long run you will neither win nor lose money on this bet. The same result is reflected using the EV equation:

• • Probability of Win: 0.5 (50%)
  • Total Payout for Win: $200 ($100 stake and $100 profit)
  • Probability of Loss: 0.5 (50%)
  • Total Payout for Loss: $0
  • EV = (0.5 x $200) + (0.5 × 0) = $100. Since the expected return on this $100 bet is $100, you have a neutral EV wager.

This time, you are betting $110 to win $100 on heads at -110 across 100 coin flips. If 50 flips land on heads and 50 flips land on tails:

• • 50 Heads Wins = $5,000 ($100 x 50)
  • 50 Heads Losses = -$5,500 (-$110 x 50)
  • Net Wins $5000 – Net Losses $5,500 = -$500 total
  • -$500 divided by 100 = -$5 per flip
  • EV = (0.5 x $210) + (0.5 × 0) = $105. Since the expected return on this $110 bet is $105, you have a negative EV wager.

Losing $5 on every $110 wagers works out to a negative expected value of -4.55%. This example illustrates why most sports bettors are not profitable. Spreads and totals, which are generally considered to be 50/50 propositions, come at a price of -110, making them negative EV wagers for bettors who aren’t winning at an above-average rate.

Lastly, you can bet $100 to win $110 on heads at +110 across 100 coin flips. If 50 flips land on heads and 50 flips land on tails:

• • 50 Heads Wins = $5,500 ($110 x 50)
  • 50 Heads Losses = -$5,000 (-$100 x 50)
  • Net Wins $5,500 – Net Losses $5000 = +$500 total
  • +$500 divided by 100 = +$5 per flip
  • EV = (0.5 x $210) + (0.5 × 0) = $105. Since the expected return on this $100 bet is $105, you have a positive EV wager.

In this scenario, you now have a positive expected value of 5% on this wager. Even though the true odds on the coin flip remained the same in all three examples, the expected value on the bet changed drastically based on the betting price you received.

EV Is About Probability, Not Odds Prices

It’s important to note that not all underdog odds with high “+” odds have positive value, or that all favorites with short “-” odds have negative value. Value always directly correlates to true odds.

For example, consider the roll of a fair 20-sided die. The true odds of rolling a 20 are 1 in 20, or 5%. The odds of rolling a number between 1 and 19 are 19 in 20, or 95%. As such, the fair odds for rolling a 20 would be +1,900, and fair odds for rolling 1–19 would be about -1,900.

If a sportsbook offered -1,500 on 1–19, some bettors might not take it, as they’d worry about getting unlucky with rolling a 20 after they laid so much to win so little.

But this is a clearly positive expected value play. Consider betting $1,500 to win $100 on 100 hypothetical rolls, with 5% landing on 20 and 95% landing on 1–19:

• • 95 Wins = $9,500 ($100 x 95)
  • 5 Losses = -$7,500 (-$1500 x 5)
  • Net Wins $9500 – Net Losses $7,500 = +$2,000 total
  • $2,000 divided by 100 = +$200 per roll

$200 profit per roll divided by $1,500 per wager reveal that this bet has a sensational positive EV of 13.33%. Of course, this doesn’t mean you should bet on all huge favorites, either. It simply shows that value bets can come at any price if the payout compares favorably to the true odds. Finding value in sports betting is difficult, but not impossible.

1. The Oddsmakers Aren’t Perfect

The more important a game is, the less likely oddsmakers are to make mistakes. Consider regular season NFL games, major sport playoff games, and prime-time games between popular teams. Sportsbooks dedicate heavy resources to these important games to craft incredibly accurate lines.

Even then, nobody’s perfect, especially when you think about how many sporting events there are throughout the year. Major leagues like the NBA, NHL, and MLB each have well over a thousand games in a regular season. College sports have thousands of games across multiple conferences. Soccer has hundreds of games across dozens of countries, not to mention less popular sports like golf, tennis, MMA, and more.

And in addition to simple moneylines and totals on these events, many sportsbooks today are also offering props, futures, and live betting options as well. There are simply not enough resources at a sportsbook’s disposal to get all of these betting lines perfect every time. Sportsbooks use higher margins and lower betting limits on some markets to counteract these flaws, but there is still value to be found for players even with these extra measures in place.

2. You’re Essentially Betting Against the Public

Betting sites generally aim to limit their own risk on any given game or event by trying to encourage balanced betting action on both sides. Too much action on one side could leave the sportsbook vulnerable to a big financial loss if that side wins. For example, if a sportsbook took $2 million dollars in bets on the Seattle Mariners at +100 and only $500,000 in bets on the Texas Rangers at -120, that book would lose $1.5 million ($2 million – $500,000) if the Mariners won.

On the other hand, imagine if $1.1 million was wagered on the Mariners at -110 and $1.1 million was wagered on the Rangers at -110 as well. In this scenario, the sportsbook would collect $1.1 million in losing bets and pay $1 million in winning bets to clear $100,000 in profit regardless of which team won. This guaranteed win would clearly be the preferable situation for a betting site.

But even betting action on both sides is a rare occurrence. It isn’t uncommon to see one side receiving 60%, 70%, or even 80% of the action on a spread or total, especially if one of the teams involved is popular nationally or on a hot streak.

In an attempt to balance out the betting action, bookmakers frequently make adjustments to their betting odds in attempt to entice bettors to place money on the other side as well. This is why you often see moneyline prices and spreads change in the days and hours leading up to a game.

Even if the oddsmakers’ models had the true odds projected accurately, the actual odds available may wind up being drastically different due to how the public bet. These public line shifts can create value betting opportunities that may not have otherwise been there.

3. Adjustments To Breaking News

Oddsmakers will quickly take lines down or adjust them in the event of breaking news that impacts the game, such as an injury or trade. And similar to how they’re not perfect as creating lines due to finite resources, they’re not perfect as adjusting them, either. A betting line that doesn’t accurately reflect a key news update may have a clear value bet for or against the impacted side.