Nobel Prize In Literature 2024 Betting Odds and Predictions

Xue was regarded as one of the favorites to win the Nobel Prize in Literature last year. However, Norwegian Jon Fosse picked up the win for his work on developing innovative plays and prose. He was not considered a favorite, but he won regardless.

Nevertheless, Xue hasn’t been shut out from winning major awards during her illustrious writing career. The Chinese author was a two-time International Booker Prize long-listed writer in 2021 and 2019. Additionally, she captured the 2015 Best Translated Book Award for her fiction book The Last Lover.

Several of Xue’s novels have been translated from Chinese to English, many of which were critically acclaimed. According to her younger sister, she lived a tough life growing up, which included working as a mill worker for eight years.

Nevertheless, she spent hours reading foreign literature and learning languages. As a result, Xue’s writing includes a flare of Western modern literature, while delving into her life experiences in Chinese culture.

Her fiction novels can be described as distinct and unlike any other writer’s publications. After coming up just short of the Nobel Prize in Literature last year, Xue must be considered a front-runner in 2024.

The way I view it, Xue’s odds to win the Nobel Prize should likely be slightly shorter in this spot. As I noted, Xue has an implied chance of 25%, but I see her having a 35% probability. This would translate to +186 odds, so yes, there is strong betting value to consider on her at +300!

The number of accolades and awards that Mircea Cărtărescu has received are too numerous to list! Dating back to 1980, with the Romanian Writers’ Union Prize, Cărtărescu has been collecting awards.

Most recently, Cărtărescu won the 2022 FIL Award, 2023 Los Angeles Times Book Prize for Solenoid, and 2024 International Dublin Literary Award for Solenoid.

Published in 2015, Solenoid is still receiving rave reviews from critics and readers alike.

The former Romanian language teacher and University of Bucharest professor is a definite shortlisted candidate to win the Nobel Prize in Literature. However, is he a better pick to win the award over Xue and even Gerald Murnane?

Gerald Murnane’s career dates back to the 1970s. The 85-year-old native of Coburg, Australia, was first noticed for Tamarisk Row and A Lifetime on Clouds.

While working as a creative writing teacher, Murnane’s career blossomed in the 1980s. He would release his most well-known novel in 1982 with The Plains. Even decades later, The Plains is still talked about among book readers.

This success launched Murnane forward, where only six years later, he wrote another compelling novel that received rave reviews, Inland. After a long break from writing fiction novels, Murnane released Barley Patch in 2009.

In total, Murnane has published 13 books in his writing career, while developing a cult following of literary fans along the way since the 1970s.

In 2018, Murnane was rewarded with the Prime Minister’s Literary Awards. He most certainly deserves the Nobel Prize in Literature, but I don’t know if there will be enough votes for him.

From the Nobel Prize in Literature odds at +1200 or higher, Murnane has to be the best bet on the board. I see him as more of the second-best writer to win, so a +600 price would be more appropriate than +1200! A small bet here is warranted.