On Saturday, April 8, the UFC will be live from the Miami-Dade Arena in Miami, Florida, for UFC 287: Pereira vs Adesanya 2. This exciting PPV event features a rematch for the middleweight title as Alex Pereira defends the belt against former champ Israel Adesanya.
In total, there are 14 bouts scheduled for this massive show, which also features the return of Jorge Masvidal. You can bet on the entire card at the best UFC betting sites.
UFC 287 Odds
We see a few strong favorites on the main card, as well as these minor upsets worth their money lines. If you’re looking to develop a UFC parlay card, include Gilbert Burns, Amorim and possibly Karl Williams. The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
| Pick | Odds | Confidence | Payout per $100 Wager |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adesanya vs Pereira: Over 1.5 Rounds | -435 | High | $122 |
| Gilbert Burns | -550 | High, Parlay Pick | $118 |
| Adrian Yanez | -175 | Moderate | $157 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | +210 | Moderate, Upset Pick | $310 |
| Rodriquez vs Rosas: Over 1.5 Rounds | -220 | High, Value Bet | $145 |
| Chris Curtis | +100 | Moderate-High | $200 |
| Luana Pinheiro | -164 | Moderate, Value Bet | $160 |
| Karl Williams | -500 | High | $120 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | +156 | Moderate, Upset Pick | $256 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | +212 | Low | $312 |
| Bahamondes vs Ogden: Over 1.5 Rounds | -210 | High | NA |
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | -210 | Low, Value Bet | $147 |
| Jaqueline Amorim | -250 | High | $140 |
UFC 287 Predictions
You’ll recognize plenty of names on this card that represent a decade of UFC hype trains. Fresh blood like Rosas and Amorim add to the dynamism, but Rosas’ hype is affecting the moneyline.
Expect his moneyline to climb later in the week as fans jump on board. For this same reason, we expect the Gilbert Burns moneyline to get even more valuable as Masvidal fans come out of the woodwork.
Israel Adesanya -130 vs Alex Pereira +110
For this highly anticipated rematch, we should look at the stats from their first fight which took place at UFC 281 in November 2022.
Izzy landed 119 strikes to Alex’s 140, attempting 4 takedowns in five rounds. Looking at the scorecards, Israel out-pointed Alex in three of the five rounds, but it’s tough to say who was up on the card. Adesanya was more active throughout, but it cost him late in the fifth.
| Fighter | UFC Takedown Offense and Defense | Significant Strikes landed in rounds 2-4 of Fight 1 | Fight 1 Control Time | UFC Career Strikes Absorbed per Minute |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adesanya | 14%, 77% | 54 | 6:34 | 2.8 |
| Pereira | 100%, 73% | 40 | 0:31 | 3.63 |
On paper, Izzy makes a case for coming back and winning this fight via decision. With the right advancements in his wrestling, I fully believe that is possible. What this makes me more convinced of, is that Alex’s plan is a long fight and so is Israel’s.
The Over 1.5 Rounds at -435 is a better bet than either money line, and it’s worth getting a sure return on two seasoned technicians than risking it on their fourth encounter (across kickboxing and MMA.)
Gilbert Burns -550 vs Jorge Masvidal +375
Burns beat Magny by first round submission in January, putting him at 2-2 in the last four fights. His razor thin fight with Chimaev proved he’s still in the contender rankings for a reason.
Masvidal sits at +375, shocking his fans, but his three-fight losing streak and brutalization from Colby Covington makes the 38-year-old look like Tony Ferguson at the end of his run.
Burns has shown susceptibility in the UFC against one type of fighter: someone with very high-quality takedown defense (and Dan Hooker.)
At 74%, Masvidal will get put down and his only hope is catching Burns with something big early on. On top of that, his conditioning looked terrible against Covington and this feels like a cash grab rather than a respectable title run.
Adrian Yanez -175 vs Rob Font +148
Font sees underdog status for the fifth time in the UFC, going 1-3 in his prior underdog positions. He lost to Vera and Aldo after getting knocked down but landing an impressive 420 significant strikes across 2 bouts.
Adrian Yanez (16-3) is undefeated in the UFC, but Font is on another level when compared to Yanez’s opponents to date. Tony Kelley (2-2 UFC record) was a slight step up from Yanez previous fights.
UFC stats aren’t very useful here, given the massive difference in opponent quality. Font is a masterful kickboxer, but time and again his issue is getting knocked down, costing him on the scorecards.
If Yanez connects, we’ll see a knock down and Font’s take 1 to land 2 striking style won’t hold up against that power.
Kevin Holland -265 vs Santiago Ponzinibbio +210
Since announcing his retirement, Holland is fighting for the second time in four months. He lost to Thompson and Chimaev, proving that he’s ineffective unless his opponent has certain weaknesses on the ground.
Ponzinibbio saw a 7-fight winning streak from 2015-2018, but is now 2-3 since 2021. His 60% takedown defense puts his performance against Holland into question.
One of the most underrated jabbers in MMA.
Santiago Ponzinibbio #ufc pic.twitter.com/cXpQ65rdBz
— Weasle (@ThaWeasle) October 27, 2021
Several factors make the upset a possibility. First, Ponzinibbio has never been submitted and Holland relies heavily on his BJJ threat.
Holland’s 2-4 run since 2021 includes a loss to Daukaus that was overturned, and Holland’s rushed three fight series in six months feels more like a run on his contract than any gate-keeper status at Middleweight.
Christian Rodriquez +190 vs Raul Rosas Jr -230
The youngest UFC fighter is back after a UFC win December 10th via Neck Crank. Rosas is a lanky bantamweight already claiming he’ll be the first three weight class title holder.
Rodriguez is 1-1 in the UFC after a loss to Pearce. At 8-1, his primary threat is the submission, but this is a better test of Rosas than anyone he’s faced to date. UFC 287 odds for Rosas are generous, and a bit hyped in our eyes.
The 7-0 Rosas is facing a scrappy fighter and the Over 1.5 rounds is generous at -220. We’ll take the over, expecting a decision between fighters that have never been finished.
Chris Curtis +100 vs Kelvin Gastelum -120
“Action Man” Curtis finished Buckley in an upset last December. At 5-1 in the UFC, Curtis is a powerhouse at 185. Gastelum has been out since 2021, and is now 1-5 over his last six fights. It’s hard to believe he’s the favorite.
Is Gastelum dangerous? Maybe, but he hasn’t had a TKO since 2017. At only 31 years old, he has time to recoup and redevelop that skill. It still feels like Curtis is the right pick, given he has the momentum and the better knockout ratio in the UFC.
Luana Pinheiro -164 vs Michelle Waterson +135
Waterson was 8-2 in her first ten at the UFC, but after her loss to Jedrzejczyk she is now 1-4. At 37, she looks to be slowing down. The one win was over Angela Hill, a bad decision in our eyes. Pinheiro isn’t a contender, but at 10-1 with a 3-0 UFC run since 2020, she takes a serious step up in notoriety.
Waterson has a style that seems form-fit to beat Pinheiro, who’s 4:3 strikes landed to absorption rate leaves plenty to be desired.
At 67% takedown defense, Waterson will have to rely on her floor grappling to get back to her feet often, and coupled with her current fight history, we think the rising star will take a narrow victory.
Karl Williams -500 vs Chase Sherman +385
Another late edition to the UFC 287 odds will favor Williams, who’s being handed a victory over Sherman. Now 4-10 in the UFC, we’re unsure how Sherman is maintaining his contract, other than by way of beefing up the record of incoming fighters.
🚨CHRIS BARNETT IS OUT🚨
Karl Williams steps in to take on Chase Sherman at #UFC287 on April 8.
[per @BigMarcel24]#UFC287 #UFC #MMA pic.twitter.com/N6dB4VhOiS
— MMA Orbit (@mma_orbit) April 1, 2023
Gerald Meerschaert +156 vs Joe Pyfer -190
Now 4-1 since 2021, Meerschaert is on his strongest run since the beginning of his UFC career in 2016. UFC 287 odds for Pyfer reflect his knockout power, and not his longtime performances. A loss to Dustin Stoltzfus at DWCS in 2020 via knockout puts his performance against seasoned fighters into question.
Meerschaert is dangerous, and his three knockout losses are each to high quality power punchers like Thiago Santos and Ian Heinisch. With reimagined BJJ and a history of high-quality striking, we see a competitive win for the veteran.
Cynthia Calvillo +212 vs Lupita Godinez -265
Calvillo is now 1-5 since 2019, and her four-fight losing streak includes some big names like Andrade, Chookagian, and Nunes. Loopy is a better competitor than we imagined, but her losses to Penne and Hill put her in limbo. She can’t beat contenders, and her UFC 287 odds have her at a higher confidence than we do.
While Calvillo is no Angela Hill, she’s used to fighting better fighters than Loopy. For that, we offer her our top pick, but you should consider only a small wager on the triple your money return.
Ignacio Bahamondes -340 vs Trey Ogden +280
Ogden’s win over Zellhuber shocked us, as he showed a kind of aggression and accuracy that he couldn’t against Leavitt in 2022. Without that performance, we would have seen a blowout for Ignacio, but now it’s a tougher call.
No UFC 287 prop bets have been announced for this late addition, but we expect a competitive bout that should make it to the late rounds.
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke -210 vs Steve Garcia +173
After three wins and a rapid finish of Darrick Minner last November, Nuerdanbieke is looking like a force on the ground and in the UFC. Garcia has a 100% takedown defense, and his knockout win over Chase Hooper last October makes this fight interesting.
Garcia’s two UFC losses have been against fellow strikers, with Nuerdanbieke having the best offensive takedowns of anyone he’s faced. Nuerdanbieke’s loss to Culibao hangs over his stats, as he would otherwise show a 1:1 striking offense and defense. This is the closest call on the card.
Just a reminder that Jacqueline Amorim will break out as the best UFC prospect in 2023. #mma #ufc #jacquelineamorim pic.twitter.com/YixVnqFaMx
— DEE BLACK (@deeblackmma3) February 6, 2023
Jaqueline Amorim -250 vs Sam Hughes +200
Hughes is 2-4 in the UFC, but her upset knockout of Elise Reed reminds us that everyone is dangerous. 6-0 Amorim is making her UFC debut, and fight tape shows she’s incredibly capable at wrestling and grappling.
Hughes 47% takedown defense won’t be enough to deal with the pressure from the incoming LFA champion.
UFC 287: Old Favorites Fall Hard
Waterson, Masvidal, Gastelum and Holland are names that have had moments of massive success in the UFC, but ultimately haven’t lived up to that hype in their recent string of fights. Don’t get sucked into betting on who a fighter used to be. Look at the stats, not the UFC 287 odds.
