On Saturday, March 18, the UFC will be live on PPV from the O2 Arena in London, UK, for UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3. The featured bout of the night is a welterweight title fight as Leon Edwards battles Kamaru Usman.
The top UFC betting sites have released odds for the entire lineup. Let’s step inside the octagon to examine this UFC 286 card and make some predictions.
UFC 286 Odds
The following odds are courtesy of Bovada.
| UFC 286 Pick | Odds | Confidence | Payout per $100 Wager |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kumaru Usman | -250 | Moderate | $125 |
| Rafael Fiziev | -240 | High | $141 |
| Gunnar Nelson | -425 | High, Low Value | $123 |
| Casey O’Neill | -175 | High, Value Bet | $157 |
| Marvin Vettori | -285 | Moderate | $135 |
| Jack Shore | -525 | Moderate | $119 |
| Chris Duncan | +100 | High, Top Upset | +200 |
| Patterson vs Ashmoz: Under 2.5 Rounds | No Odds Posted | High | NA |
| Gabriel Santos | +140 | Moderate | $140 |
| Christian Duncan | -205 | High, Parlay pick | $148 |
| Jake Haldey | -360 | Moderate | $127 |
| Luana Carolina | +145 | Low | $245 |
| Ludovit Klein | -168 | High, Value Bet | $159 |
| Juliana Miller | -400 | High, Value Bet | $125 |
UFC 286 Predictions
Keep an eye out for additional UFC 286 prop bets throughout the week.
Kamaru Usman -250 vs Leon Edwards +195
Edwards last bout was the upset head kick that ended Usman’s six title defense streak and undefeated UFC reign. It’s no surprise to see Usman back as the favorite, though he’s dropped from -315 in his first defense against Edwards. Their first meeting was back in 2015 when both fighters were new to the UFC.
The Over props for this fight are the right choice. The fifth-round finish from Edwards wasn’t something that could’ve happened in the opening three, and Usman was dominant but not focused on finding a finish early.
When it’s announced, we expect the Over 1.5 rounds to sit at -500, and if you’re looking for an over to parlay, this is the right one.
In the first three rounds of their last fight, Usman lost round 1, but was even winning round five until the head kick. Usman’s goal was to coast and slowly turn up the heat, but the second round was his best performance of the fight.
We think Usman will go back to the drawing board and fix the defensive holes from fight one. Edwards will lose a narrow decision.
Justin Gaethje +190 vs Rafael Fiziev -240
Fiziev looks unstoppable after his win over RDA last July. We had him losing that fight, but a fifth-round knockout set his win in stone. Gaethje has fought only once a year in 2021 and 2022, and his first-round loss to Charles Oliveira and brutal fight with Chandler are not the kind of performances he wants coming into the fight with Fiziev.
Rafael Fiziev in Muay Thai was a BEAST
— ᕋOO⅃ 📼 (@Grapegone) July 5, 2022
Fiziev was a -240 against RDA and has slowly climbed every fight since his upset win over Marc Diakiese until now. We don’t see Gaethje as the superior striker and it’s unclear how Gaethje will do in their grappling exchanges.
Considering Gaethje has seen only one decision in his UFC career, then under 2.5 rounds should come in at below -300. It’s not a bad bet, but the Fiziev money line is superior.
Fiziev has a stronger blend of offensive wrestling, a wide-reaching kickboxing background, and absorbs fewer strikes overall by a margin of 3 per minute. Fiziev may look to take the fight to the later rounds, where Gaethje is considerably less experienced. The UFC 286 betting odds for Fiziev may move later in the week, as Gaethje has a notably larger fanbase.
Bryan Barberena +315 vs Gunnar Nelson -425
Once a force in the UFC welterweight division, Nelson has only fought once in the last three years due to injury and planning (May 2022). He is 2-3 in his last five, losing to Edwards, Burns and Ponzinibbio.
Barberena is 3-2 in his last five, but analysts are worried about his ground game against Nelson, especially after he showed a series of technical mistakes against RDA last December, leading to a second round submission loss.
Odds for the over should be the favorite, considering Barberena’s string of UFC decisions, and fans of Gunnar’s submission-oriented style will lean toward the UFC 286 odds for ‘Nelson by Submission’ when they’re released later this week.
We see Nelson as the superior grappler, and Barberena has struggled against BJJ style fighters time and again. Expect a similar outcome this weekend. We are not confident enough to move this to a parlay, and we would consider Nelson to be a stronger bet at closer to -350.
Casey O’Neill -175 vs Jennifer Maia +145
Maia has gone 6-5 in the UFC since 2018, and those 11 fights in five years have taken their toll. She’s absorbed 392 significant strikes in her last five fights alone. O’Neill is undefeated, but mostly unchallenged. Her win over Antonia Shevchenko was impressive, and she’s finished three fights since joining the UFC in 2021.
Maia is durable if she’s anything, but the fact that she’s taken so much damage coming into a fight with a power puncher is concerning. Fans of big payouts will be interested in the O’Neill by Finish or TKO prop bets, and we bet those will come in at close to +200.
O’Neill has better stats in nearly every category, including takedown defense, offense and submission frequency. Maia’s BJJ is set to be an equalizer, but we’re not interested in the UFC 284 odds for under props on this fight. We could see Maia survive, but take a beating along the way.
Marvin Vettori -285 vs Roman Dolidze +230
The UFC 286 odds for Vettori reflect his 2021 winning streak and seem to ignore his current 1-2 status since then. Dolidze is 6-1 in the UFC, finishing four fights via knockout, but with Vettori taking shots from Adesanya, Whittaker and Costa, bettors are unconvinced he can be finished.
We’re looking closely at the durability of fighters like Vettori, Gaethji and Maia on this card. Each has taken massive amounts of career damage.
Why is nobody talking about Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze. Who you got? #UFC286 pic.twitter.com/hIHOVkPfAz
— Anurag Tiwari 🇮🇳 (@anuragtiwari703) March 13, 2023
Vettori absorbs 3.58 strikes per minute on average, compared to Dolidze’s 2.06. While standing, Dolidze will land more and land often. It’s Dolidze’s grappling that makes him the underdog on the UFC 286 betting odds.
At 33%, he’s sporting some of the lowest wrestling defenses Vettori has faced to date. For that, we estimate an easy three rounds for Vettori, unless he shows up too cocky to wrestle.
Jack Shore -525 vs Makwan Amirkhani +365
Shore is coming off an upset loss. He was a -170 over Ricky Simon, but was submitted in the second round after a one-sided fight.
The UFC is offering him an easy comeback fight, and hopefully proof that his submission defense isn’t trash. Amirkhani has four UFC submission wins, but in his last seven UFC appearances he’s gone 2-5.
Shore has an easy win ahead if he does not shoot for any takedowns. In stand-up exchanges, Tank has a clear path to victory and should utilize it.
We’re keeping Shore off the Mokaev parlay, so play this as a value bet. If you’re looking for a longshot upset with a great payout, Amirkhani by Submission will be well above +500 and has a 10-15% chance of hitting.
Chris Duncan +100 vs Omar Morales -120
Duncan’s DWCS run is now 1-1, losing to Slavaclaus then smashing the much lower caliber Charlie Campbell. They’re hoping to make something of Duncan, so they put him up against a fighter who’s lost by knockout back in May 2022, and is 1-3 in his last four fights. Morales absorbs as much as he dishes out, and has well timed wrestling.
Duncan is making his debut against a fighter who has struggled with power punchers, and with a 100% knockout ratio among wins, we see Duncan putting Morales away with ease. They share no common opponents, but Morales’ performance against Medic was simple trading shots, something he cannot do with Duncan and win.
Expect the UFC 286 odds for Duncan to move closer to -150 by fight night. We would even consider Duncan and O’Neill coupled together for a high paying two fight parlay.
Sam Patterson -275 vs Yanal Ashmoz +215
DWCS winner Patterson takes on a 6-0 Ashmoz in his UFC debut. Ashmoz has defeated Dennis Hughes at PFL, and is a 4-1 fighter from CFFC. It’s tough to properly judge fighters from Israel or any other smaller MMA circuit, but fight tape shows that Ashmoz has very heavy hands. His grappling is our primary concern.
When the UFC 286 odds for unders are announced, we’ll take the Under 2.5 rounds, which should hover around -150. Patterson will either poke holes in Ashmoz BJJ game or get knocked out trying.
Jafel Filho +500 vs Muhammad Mokaev -800
This is the most one sided fight on this card. Mokaev is a finisher, and Filho hasn’t faced anyone at this level. Filho believes in his hands and his fans will flock to the ‘Fight Goes to Decision, No’ prop bet this Friday.
this armbar from Muhammad Mokaev was ridiculously slick 🔥🤩 pic.twitter.com/RUCt60YBk3
— The Patrick McCorry Sports Show (@Patrick_McCorry) December 16, 2022
For now, we’ll keep it simple. Parlay the Mokaev money line with top fighters from other MMA fights this week. Mokaev is the biggest threat to Moreno, and we hope they offer him a contender after this showing.
Lerone Murphy (-160) vs Gabriel Santos (+140)
This is a tough fight to bet on. Santos is 10-0 coming into the UFC and Murphy is on a three-fight winning streak that includes two knockouts.
Murphy’s been out since 2021 and this is a hard fight to come back to. Fight tape shows Santos to be dangerous in all positions, with LFA finishes that feature fantastic ground striking.
Christian Duncan (-205) vs Dusko Todorovic (+175)
The undefeated Duncan faces Todorovic who is 4-3 in the UFC and a knockout artist that’s been starched twice in the octagon.
A Cage Warriors champion, Duncan has dispatched every opponent with style, including four pro first round finishes. Todorovic could catch him, but if this comes down to a battle of chins, Duncan has never been knocked out and has taken far less career damage than Dusko. Bet the newcomer.
Jake Hadley -360 vs Malcolm Gordon +285
Now 1-1 in the UFC, Hadley is a submission artist with developing boxing facing a knockout artist with relatively poor submission defense in Gordon. Gordon boasts an 80 second knockout from 2022, but has lost by submission twice in the UFC.
It should be an easy submission win for Hadley, and if you’re looking for a higher paying prop, ‘Hadley by Submission’ should sit at +100 later in the week.
Joanne Wood -175 vs Luana Carolina +145
Wood is on a three-fight skid and, at 37, it will be tough to turn her career around. Carolina was knocked out by McCann in her last showing, but her 4-2 UFC record makes us believe she has plenty of life left in her at only 29.
This should be a competitive bout, and we’re happy to see Carolina taking significant time off after a knockout loss. She’s a decision fighter to the core, but makes regular submission attempts that she’s failed to capitalize on. We’re seeing a close and unpredictable fight; the UFC 286 odds reflect that this bout is a coin toss.
Jai Herbert +139 vs Ludovit Klein -168
Klein has found his rhythm in the past two bouts. Herbert is a low volume power striker, which is exactly the kind of fighter that loses to a technician like Klein. We can see Klein winning a grappling focused decision as well; he has free reign in dictating the fight and its outcome.
HEADKICK ARTIST 🎨
🇸🇰 Ludovit Klein puts Slovakia on the map!
[ Tune in LIVE on ESPN2 ] pic.twitter.com/0oj8dN5p1Y
— UFC (@ufc) September 27, 2020
Juliana Miller -400 vs Veronica Hardy +320
Miller had an impressive debut, finishing Walker in the first round. Veronica is 1-4 in the UFC, and lost her debut in a similar fashion to the Walker knockout. This fight looks very one sided on paper, but Hardy loves to be taken down, and Miller’s submission work is untested at the highest levels.
Hardy has been out for three years, both from the grappling and MMA scenes. Miller should win with relative ease, but we are keeping this off the UFC 286 betting odds for a parlay because of the Hardy by submission x-factor.
UFC 286: Technical Favorites
This card will showcase a few of our favorite technical fighters, such as Klien and Mokaev. These fighters make few mistakes and are easy to bet one. Yes, they lose fights, but the holes in their game make the losses predictable. In MMA betting, it’s good to find fighters that rely on more than just power.
