On Saturday, March 11, the UFC will be live from The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Fight Night 221: Yan vs. Dvalishvili. The main event of the night features a bantamweight clash between former champ Petr Yan and rising contender Merab Dvalishvili.
The top UFC betting sites have odds and props for the full UFC Fight Night lineup. Unlike recent weeks, this UFC card should provide fight fans with a night of highly competitive bouts.
UFC Fight Night 221 Odds
You will see high-payouts and a slew of value bets on this weekend’s card. UFC odds are courtesy of Bovada.
| The Bet | UFC Odds | Confidence | Payout per $100 Wager |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan Moneyline | -265 | Moderate | $137 |
| Alexander Romanov Moneyline | -155 | Low | $164 |
| Krylov vs Spann: Under 2.5 Rounds | -325 | High | $130 |
| Ricardo Ramos Moneyline | -360 | Moderate-High | $127 |
| Victor Petrino Moneyline | -110 | Moderate | $190 |
| Williams vs Brezski: Over 2.5 Rounds | -115 | Moderate | $186 |
| Davey Grant Moneyline | -140 | Moderate | $171 |
| Sedriques Dumas Moneyline | -185 | Moderate-High | $154 |
| Mario Bautista Moneyline | -1000 | High, Parlay Bet | $110 |
| JJ Aldrich Moneyline | -425 | High, Parlay Bet | $123 |
| Tony Gravely Moneyline | +115 | High, Upset of the Night | $215 |
| Nam vs Silva: Over 1.5 Rounds | -205 | Moderate | $148 |
| Carlston Harris Moneyline | -120 | High, Parlay Bet | $183 |
We see a strong parlay that includes Bautista, Aldrich, and Harris. Betting on these moneylines in a three-leg parlay, will net you +149 odds. That means, you will earn $149 on every $100 wagered.
If you are looking for a selection of high-paying value bets, look to Harris, Gravely and the Krylov vs Spann under.
While people like to bet big on the main event, use caution. This is a competitive bout, and the UFC Fight Night 221 odds are favoring Yan because of his hype, not his ability over Dvalishvili.
UFC Fight Night 221 Predictions
This card has several fan favorites that will be easy to rally behind but, with a card full of value bets, we advise spreading out your wagers rather than dumping them into one hype train.
Merab Dvalishvili +210 vs Petr Yan -265
A force at bantamweight, Yan has fallen to 1-3 in his last four fights from the result of two questionable split decisions and DQ loss to Sterling. Fighting Dvalishvili is not going to make things any easier.
Merab’s eight fight winning streak includes a finish over Moraes and retiring Aldo and Dodson from the UFC. Both men have seen a string of decisions, and are durable fighters.
The Over 3.5 Rounds at -300 is the right bet. We are leaning toward a Yan moneyline, and would even consider his KO finish and fifth round TKO finish once odds are announced.
Yan keeps a higher rate of fire, and his 90% takedown defense spells trouble for Merab, who relies on takedowns to win decisions and to absorb fewer strikes.
Alexander Romanov is taking everybody for a ride, even his own coaches 😅 #UFCVegas10 pic.twitter.com/LDoCu9FwH4
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) September 12, 2020
Alexander Romanov -155 vs Alexander Volkov +130
Volkov’s finish of Rozenstruik makes him 2-2 in his last four, losing to Aspinall and Gane. Romanov lost his first ever fight in a majority decision to Tybura in a very narrow showing last August.
Volkov fans should be concerned with his durability. He’s given up two finishes inside the UFC, and he was out-paced by Blaydes brutally, which cost him 14 takedowns in a five rounder.
Romanov has a better striking defense overall, and far more aggressive wrestling. The only question is Volkov’s win over Tybura, which was a kickboxing match.
Romanov needs takedowns to get the win, and he knows it. Bet the Over 1.5 rounds at -175 if you’re skeptical of the shaky UFC Fight Night 221 odds for the Romanov money line.
Nikita Krylov -175 vs Ryan Spann +145
Two weeks ago, Krylov canceled the main event after falling ill. We predicted the Under 2.5 rounds at -325, and we stand by that as a good prediction.
Spann is a devastating finisher, and there’s more than one reason to move to his upset win. His recent string of finishes, and Krylov’s willingness to fall into submissions, show us glimpses of a possible upset.
Not enough to change our pick, but enough to sway betters looking for higher-paying UFC Fight Night 221 odds.
Austin Lingo +270 vs Ricardo Ramos -360
Lingo has three UFC decisions going 2-1. He is a good striker with a willingness to exchange- but he dropped the ball against Zalal giving up six takedowns.
Ramos’ average of 2.58 takedowns per fight could be the difference, particularly in showings against Bill Algeo where he scored 8 takedowns and 3:26 of control. The over feels right in this striker vs grappler exchange, but we’re avoiding it given Ramos’ newfound first round knockout power.
Jonathan Martinez +190 vs Said Nurmagomedov -240
Said is facing one of the top tests of his career in Martinez. Jonathan’s last upset was the +100 win over Avaid Lazishvili, and a +180 win over Pingyuan Liu.
He’s a power striker with troubling knees and kicks, but Said prefers to fight at this range as well, using counter grappling and strikes at a distance to set up finishes.
This is going to be an exciting fight and the +140 under seems like a bet for Said at first glance, but Martinez could easily be the first person to put Nurmagomedov away. Place a small wager on Nurmagomedov’s moneyline.
Anton Turkalj -110 vs Vitor Petrino -110
In the most competitive bout on the card, we have two DWCS winners with Turkalj coming off an unfortunate sacrificial loss to Jailton Almeida. Petrino is an undefeated striker with plenty of knockout power but significant room for improvement.
He was knocked down in his DWCS showing and Anton has five TKOs himself. Neither man has been knocked out, so we are steering away from any under bets. We see Turkalj as Petrino’s toughest test to date, but we’re siding with the Brazilian due to sheer finishing power.
Karl Williams -210 vs Łukasz Brzeski +170
Another former DWCS matchup; Williams’ grappling was dominate in his debut, and is being given Brzeski.
Brzeski vs Buday was a split decision despite Buday landing only 56 significant strikes to Brzeski’s 118, but Buday landed 75% headshots to Brzeski’s 41%.
This is the first real test of Brzeski’s takedown defense that we’ll get to see, and the Over 2.5 rounds looks right at -115.
Both men are durable and well rounded, though we are leaning toward the Brzeski upset money line. The UFC Fight Night 221 odds for Lukasz are simply a better value in this coin toss match-up.
Davey Grant -140 vs Raphael Assuncao +115
Bantamweight vet Assuncao has been active in the UFC and WEC since 2009. At 39, he is only three years older than Grant.
Now, 1-2 in his last three, losing to Vera and Yanez in close decisions, Grant is the weakest of the opponents in Assuncao’s recent losing streak. Raphael has fought names like Garbrandt, Sandhagen and Moraes over that span.
We should see a competitive bout, but with fighters approaching their 40’s it’s tough to bet the Over props. We are sticking to the Grant money line, with UFC Fight Night 221 odds that bank on Grant’s heavy-handedness to put an aging Assuncao on his heels.
Josh Fremd +150 vs Sedriques Dumas -185
DWCS winner Dumas dispatched his opponent by submission in 47 seconds. At 7-0, we expect big things from ‘The Reaper.’ Fremd is down 0-2 in the UFC, but has had more tough fights overall.
Dumas has a combined opponent record of 24-22, while Fremd’s last seven alone is 39-13, a far tougher pool of fighters. Still, Dumas is a knockout striker who took a slower road to the UFC, and we think he has the tools to put Fremd away. Bet the under, if not the Dumas money line.
Guido Cannetti +600 vs Mario Bautista -1000
Submission machine Bautista sits at an aggressive 5.6 landed to 3.9 strikes absorbed per minute in the UFC across a 5-2 run. He faces Canetti, a fighter that has struggled in the octagon at 5-4 since 2014. Is this fight set to be a shut out?
Cannetti is on a two-fight finishing streak, both against fighters with losing UFC records. Bautista’s only losses are to Trevin Jones and Cory Sandhagen, both top ten bantamweights.
Cannetti is durable, so betting the under is ill advised. Stick with the Bautista moneyline and look to parlay it with other top UFC Fight Night 221 odds or the MMA betting odds we see through the weekend.
Ariane Lipski +315 vs JJ Aldrich -425
At 3-5 in the UFC, Lipski has been knocked out in her last three losses. She’s absorbed more strikes than she’s landed (3.34 to 4.10) but Aldrich isn’t far off.
Aldrich has similar striking stats, but relies on takedowns and control time for wins. She’s evolved into a takedown centered fighter over her last six bouts, and Lipski’s 55% takedown defense is the key stat.
Aldrich has risen from -325 to -425 overnight, and should hover around -500 by fight night. Alrdich is not seen as a finisher, but Lipski’s chin is in question, and the Under +160 may be the value bet to make on this one. For now, we stick with the easy to parlay money line.
Tony Gravely KOs Anthony Birchak #UFCVegas24 pic.twitter.com/BiIUGmSb02
— MMA Mania (@mmamania) April 17, 2021
Tony Gravely +115 vs Victor Henry -140
Gravely had the misfortune of meeting both the Snow Leopard and Nate Maness in his 5-3 UFC run to date. He has power, but he lacks sophistication that other would-be top bantamweights show.
Henry is 35, a scrapper, and scored a huge +425 upset over Raoni Barcelos back in 2022. That is the only reason he is the favorite coming in.
This may have been a fluke, and Henry is likely to have on and off nights as he ages. Gravely is 31 and still getting better and, if he can find a home for his right hand, we will see an early night.
Henry’s 75% takedown defense should be a concern; it is likely he will give at least one round to Gravely in a decision from control time. This is our upset of the night, and one of the only underdogs we have confidence in on the card.
Bruno Silva -200 vs Tyson Nam +160
Nam has knockout power but consistently loses decisions to superior technical strikers. Bruno has rediscovered his heavy hands, but has lost to Dvorak and Ulanbekov making him 2-2 in the UFC.
We do not see a strong Silva win, but the Under 2.5 rounds at -130 is a red herring, given they are both TKO strikers. Neither man is easy to finish, and both find themselves in long exchanges against skilled fighters their own age. We see the Over 1.5 as the only bet to make.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov +100 vs Carlston Harris -120
Odds were scrapped then re-released for this bout, but the UFC still sees a fight happening between Harris and Nurmagomedov.
Harris takes the favorite position as a finisher, while Nurmagomedov is a decision fighter with questionable submission defense, tapping to the only sub that has been thrown at him in the UFC.
We see Harris as both the superior striker and BJJ player, with a slight disadvantage in cage wrestling. Bet the favorite, and even consider Harris a good longshot parlay addition.
Plenty of Value With UFC Fight Night 221 Odds
We went 10-3 for last week’s predictions, dropping the Grasso upset and the Jones quick finish. The odds are not as dramatic this week, which makes the parlay smaller at UFC Fight Night 221: Yan vs Dvalishvili. However, there is a lot more value this week than at UFC 285.
Spread your bets out among the value plays and the picks we have moderate to high confidence in. Also, take advantage of the upset pick of the night and our three-leg parlay bet.
