We have UFC 304 odds for the huge pay-per-view card taking place on July 27, at the Co-op Live in Manchester, England. This is the UFC’s first card in England since a Fight Night event in July 2023, which was headlined by one of the fighters in this card’s co-main event.
That fighter was Tom Aspinall, who is now the interim heavyweight champion. He’ll have a rematch with Curtis Blaydes that serves as the co-main event. In the most anticipated clash of the night, welterweight champion Leon Edwards puts his belt on the line against the dangerous Belal Muhammad.
I’ll examine the UFC 304 betting odds for the two biggest fights on the card, and give you my analysis on how the fight will go before providing my UFC betting predictions, best bets, and picks!
All UFC 304 odds are courtesy of BetUS.
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick
- Leon Edwards: -235
- Belal Muhammad: +195
The UFC 304 betting odds have Leon Edwards (22-3) as a sizeable favorite, which makes sense considering that the 170-pound champ hasn’t lost a fight since December 2015. He won the belt from Kamaru Usman, the last man to beat Edwards, in August 2022. Edwards has actually increased as a favorite, as he was valued at -205 just two weeks ago on July 9.
Belal Muhammad (23-3, 1 NC) also has an impressive record, as he hasn’t lost since January 2019. In fact, the no-contest on these fighters’ record came against one another.
Edwards and Muhammad headlined a Fight Night card in March 2021. However, it ended early in the second round after an accidental eye poke from Edwards rendered Muhammad unable to continue. MMA outlet Sherdog had Edwards winning the first round.
The odds at online sportsbooks for this fight sound about right, especially since it’s in England. Edwards has lived in there since he was nine, so the crowd will definitely be on his side.
Tale of the Tape and Fighting Styles
| LEON EDWARDS | FIGHTERS | BELAL MUHAMMAD |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | AGE | 35 |
| 22 | WINS | 23 |
| 3 (1 NO-CONTEST) | LOSSES | 3 (1 NO-CONTEST) |
| 6’0” | HEIGHT | 5’10” |
| 170 LBS. | WEIGHT | 170 LBS. |
| 74” | REACH | 72” |
| SOUTHPAW | STANCE | ORTHODOX |
Edwards is known best for his striking and has seven KO/TKO wins under his belt. Power is not his biggest strength, but Edwards caught Usman with a wicked head kick to win the belt. While you don’t see Edwards grappling much, he does have three submission wins and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Edwards is very tough to get on the mat, as he has 70% takedown defense in the UFC. He’s not the most exciting fighter but wants to keep his opponents at range and pick them apart with a 74-inch reach.
In comparison, Muhammad likes to pressure his opponents and throw many punches. He has five wins via KO/TKO, but like Edwards, most of his wins have come via decision. He also wishes to keep this fight standing up. Both of these men are versatile, but I see this fight largely being fought on the feet.
Recent Performances and Form
Since the no-contest with Muhammad, Edwards has won four in a row. However, it hasn’t been easy. He was handily beating Nate Diaz, until Diaz caught him with a punch late in the fifth round. “Rocky” had to hold on for the rest of the fight, but he got the win. He then went on to fight Usman and was losing the fight until landing a head kick on Usman with under a minute left.
The trilogy match between the two was much closer, as Edwards won a close final round to eke out a majority decision. Edwards was in much better form against Colby Covington, almost sweeping the scorecards for a unanimous decision. It was impressive that Covington, one of the UFC’s best wrestlers, landed just two of his 10 takedown attempts against Edwards.
Edwards’ Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Colby Covington via Unanimous Decision, December 16, 2023
- WIN vs. Kamaru Usman via Majority Decision, March 18, 2023
- WIN vs. Kamaru Usman via KO, August 20, 2022
- WIN vs. Nate Diaz via Unanimous Decision, June 12, 2021
- NO-CONTEST vs. Belal Muhammad, March 13, 2021
After a tough first round against Demian Maia, Muhammad neutralized the grappling ace by stuffing 20 of his 21 takedown attempts to earn a win. Muhammad then took on Stephen Thompson and switched to his grappling, landing seven of eight takedowns against the decorated karate artist.
He then melded the two styles against Vicente Luque, countering the opponent’s strikes and mixing in takedowns to pick up the win. This was a rematch from November 2016, when Luque knocked out Muhammad.
“Remember the Name” made short work of Sean Brady, knocking out the undefeated fighter in the second round after an even opening stanza. This led Muhammad to a match against former title challenger Gilbert Burns. While it was a disappointing fight, Muhammad threw strikes with just enough volume and stuffed all four of Burns’ takedown attempts to win and earn a title match.
Muhammad’s Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision, May 6, 2023
- WIN vs. Sean Brady via TKO, October 22, 2022
- WIN vs. Vicente Luque via Unanimous Decision, April 16, 2022
- WIN vs. Stephen Thompson via Unanimous Decision, June 12, 2021
- WIN vs. Demian Maia via Unanimous Decision, June 12, 2021
Edwards vs. Muhammad Betting Pick
One market you should explore for this fight at UFC betting sites is, how long you think this fight will go. I would bet on this fight going the distance as both men have power, but they’re more “point fighters”, meaning they want to rack up as many points as possible, while avoiding trouble.
Muhammad is more likely to wade into a slugfest, and that suits Edwards just fine. He has the range and the technique to keep Muhammad at bay, and if he can stuff Covington’s takedowns, Edwards is good enough to keep Muhammad off him.
This might not be the most exciting fight, but I’m betting on Edwards’ UFC 304 betting odds to keep the belt in front of his countrymen.
Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick
- Tom Aspinall: -350
- Curtis Blaydes: +250
Tom Aspinall (14-3) is an even bigger favorite at offshore sportsbooks than Edwards as the interim heavyweight champion looks to keep his place in the rankings against Curtis Blaydes (13-4, 1 NC). Aspinall, who is born and raised in England, has probably gotten a bit of a bump in the UFC 304 betting odds as it’s a home fight for him. Like Edwards, Aspinall has increased his odds over the last two weeks, going from -270 to -350.
That doesn’t mean that Blaydes should be overlooked. He has fought and beaten some great fighters, such as Alistair Overeem and Junior Dos Santos, although both were a bit past their prime.
Like Edwards-Muhammad, this is a rematch as the two met in June 2022, also in England. It lasted just 15 seconds before Aspinall took a bad step and suffered a knee injury.
Tale of the Tape and Fighting Styles
| TOM ASPINALL | FIGHTERS | CURTIS BLAYDES |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | AGE | 33 |
| 14 | WINS | 18 |
| 3 | LOSSES | 4 (1 NO-CONTEST) |
| 6’5” | HEIGHT | 6’4” |
| 262 LBS | WEIGHT | 263 LBS |
| 78” | REACH | 80” |
| ORTHODOX | STANCE | ORTHODOX |
Aspinall has finished the opposition in all 14 of his wins, with 11 coming by knockout and three via submission.
“Honey Badger” has practiced jiu-jitsu since he was seven, and his father is a jiu-jitsu instructor. He has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, even though Aspinall has only attempted four takedowns in his UFC career.
He’s also an excellent striker who has competed in a professional boxing match, back in 2017, winning by TKO. However, it’s Aspinall’s agility that makes him a rare breed. He moves so quickly for a man who is 6’5”, and 262 pounds.
Blaydes is a strong wrestler, and in 2021, he said he wouldn’t apologize for his fighting style. He likes to control his opponent on the mat. “Razor” also packs a ton of power in his hands, as he has shown with 13 KO/TKO wins.
Striking on the feet gets Blaydes into trouble sometimes as all four of his losses have come by knockout. However, if he catches you, it’s lights out.
Recent Performances and Form
Aspinall has never gone the distance in a fight, so that’s something to consider when making your UFC betting picks. In fact, he has only gone past the first round three times in his career.
He ended Serghei Spivac’s night early, stuffing his takedown attempt with a knee to the chest and follow-up punches. Aspinall took down Alexander Volkov and finished the Russian with a kimura. Then, there was the “loss” to Blaydes, but it should be ruled a no-contest after Aspinall’s knee buckled 15 seconds in.
After a year of recovery, Aspinall picked up where he left off. He caught Marcin Tybura with an elbow to the chin, and finished the fight via ground-and-pound. Finally, he won the interim heavyweight belt as Aspinall caught Sergei Pavlovich with a right hook and finished him on the mat.
It’s an interim belt as champion Jon Jones was due to fight former champion Stipe Miocic that same night at UFC 295. However, Jones suffered a bad shoulder injury and hasn’t fought since. The two met at an event in England in March and talked briefly. Aspinall has been lobbying to fight Jones, who will still fight Miocic, hopefully sometime in 2024.
Aspinall’s Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Sergei Pavlovich via KO, November 11, 2023
- WIN vs. Marcin Tybura via TKO, July 22, 2023
- LOSS vs. Curtis Blaydes via TKO, July 23, 2022
- WIN vs. Alexander Volkov via Submission, March 19, 2022
- WIN vs. Serghei Spivac via TKO, September 4, 2021
Blaydes used his excellent wrestling to negate Jairzinho Rozenstruik’s striking for a no-decision. In the fight prior, Blaydes played with fire and got burned in a knockout loss to Derrick Lewis, so he decided to go the safe route. Before the TKO “win” over Aspinall, Blaydes knocked out Chris Daukaus cold, without attempting one takedown.
He was then knocked out with an uppercut against Sergei Pavlovich, when a win would have possibly put him in that interim-title match against Aspinall.
In his most recent match, “Razor” was getting dominated by Jailton Almeida, as the Brazilian grappling ace took Blaydes down nine times in the first round. However, he stuffed another takedown and pummeled Almeida with hammer fists until he fell to the ground.
Blaydes’ Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Jailton Almeida via KO, March 9, 2024
- LOSS vs. Sergei Pavlovich via TKO, April 22, 2023
- WIN vs. Tom Aspinall via TKO, July 23, 2022
- WIN vs. Chris Daukaus via TKO, March 26, 2022
- WIN vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik via Unanimous Decision, September 25, 2021
Aspinall vs. Blaydes Betting Pick
Like Edwards-Muhammad, you should take a look at how long the fight will go. I can safely predict that this fight won’t go the distance; it might not make it to the second round.
Blaydes doesn’t have many avenues to a win, outside of simply catching Aspinall with a big punch. No UFC heavyweight has landed more takedowns than him. However, if he goes to the mat with Aspinall, he’s asking to be submitted. The opponent is also more technical with his striking, as he’s incredibly accurate and powerful. I’m betting on an Aspinall finish to end the night in England.
Where to Bet on UFC 304?
You can find UFC 304 betting odds on all fights at BetUS, where you’ll receive a 125% matched bonus over your first three deposits, up to $3,125. You’ll find a slew of UFC betting props for this card, and there will be more markets as we get closer to fight night. For example, you’ll find odds for whether a specified round will start for these two main-event fights.
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