2023 Strade Bianche Odds and Predictions

On Saturday, March 4, the sport of cycling makes its way to Tuscany, Italy, for what some hail as the “sixth monument” – Strade Bianche.

The UCI men’s World Tour will compete in this one-day classic for points, prestige and a highly sought after victory. We’ll be examining this unofficial monument race and make our cycling predictions on who will win the 17^th edition of Strade Bianche.

2023 Strade Bianche Betting Odds

Strade Bianche odds are limited, so make sure you choose a reputable cycling sportsbook. For our betting guide to this Italian classic, we’ll be using Bovada. 

The oddsmakers have confidently inserted Mathieu van der Poel as the favorite in Tuscany. He’s ahead of other contenders like Tom Pidcock and Julian Alaphilippe.

The Dutchman won this event back in 2021¹, and is currently in good form heading into Italy. He won’t have to worry about two of his biggest foes, Tadej Pogacar and Wout van Aert, as both are absent from this race.

Julian Alaphilippe enters this weekend with plenty of confidence following a win at the Faun-Aredeche Classic in his home country². The 30-year-old offers solid value as he’s one of the best Classics’ riders in the field.  

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2023 Strade Bianche Date and Details

2023 Strade Bianche is scheduled to start and end this Saturday, March 4 in Siena. The unique route, which includes gravel roads, runs through difficult climbs across the beautiful landscape of Tuscany.

The picturesque countryside of Tuscany provides an unmatched experience for riders and fans. Ten years after the first professional edition of this race, Strade Bianche was added as a World Tour event in 2017³.

Tadej Pogacar, of UAE Team Emirates, won this race last year⁴. Unfortunately, one of the sport’s best cyclists won’t be crossing the finish line in Siena this weekend. Pogacar declined to defend his title, and opted to race at Paris-Nice instead⁵.

Also absent from the 2023 Strade Bianche odds is Wout van Aert. The longtime rival of van der Poel is out of the event after developing an illness during altitude training⁶. Wout has not made his season debut yet. However, that could change next week at Tirreno-Adriatico⁷.

The weather is not going to have an impact on Saturday’s race. The temperature is expected to reach a high of 13 degrees Celsius (55 degrees Fahrenheit), with winds gusting to the northeast at 8 km/h⁸.

😱 Polvere, sudore, tenacia. La Strade Bianche @CA_Ita sta arrivando!

😱 Dust, sweat, perseverance. The Strade Bianche @CA_Ita is coming!#StradeBianche pic.twitter.com/eUl5XQ0yQs

— Strade Bianche (@StradeBianche) February 24, 2023

2023 Strade Bianche Route

The Strade Bianche route will cover 184 km in Siena this year. There are 11 gravel sections that comprise 63 km of the route. The longest gravel section is 11.9km followed by an 11.5km section⁹.

Expect the 11.5km section through Monte Sante Marie to be one of the most daunting challenges during the 2023 Strade Bianche race. Along with the unsettled gravel, the peloton must traverse uphill.

This section combined with the climb up Via Santa Caterina, which has a max gradient of 18%¹⁰, should separate the contenders from the pretenders on Saturday.

It all comes down to these last 1100 m: skills, muscles, fatigue, hope. Here comes the last gravel section of the 2023 edition of the Strade Bianche @CA_Ita⬇️

📍 Le Tolfe – ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
📏 Length – 1.1 km
⛰ Uphill – 0.5 km
😱 Maximum gradient 18%#StradeBianche pic.twitter.com/MJw3DHBxEA

— Strade Bianche (@StradeBianche) February 28, 2023

Past Winners at Strade Bianche

Three of the previous five recent winners have entered the race on Saturday. Michal Kwiatkowski and Fabian Cancellara are the only repeat winners of the event. Kwiatkowski has two Strade Bianche titles in 2014 and 2017. Cancellara is the only three-time winner, with victories in 2008, 2012, and 2016¹¹.

2023 Strade Bianche Predictions

With Pogacar and Wout Van Aert absent from the 2023 Strade Bianche field, there is less competition for guys like van der Poel, Pidcock and Alaphilippe. Let’s take a look at who we have pegged as the top longshot, best value bet, and the race winner.

Top Strade Bianche Longshot

Quinn Simmons (+2200)

An American has never won at Strade Bianche since its debut in 2007. Quinn Simmons has a chance to be the first to stand on the top of the podium in Tuscany.

We are giving him a better than +2200 chance of pulling off a stunning upset on Saturday. The 21-year-old has a bright future and might expedite his standing as a top cyclist with a win at 2023 Strade Bianche this weekend.

Simmons likes to take to the gravel, so this route should suit his bike skills. In his European season debut last week, Simmons impressed in the 191.5 km La Drome Classic. Quinn finished 5th in the one-day race in France¹².

His effort comes eight attempts after winning the third stage at Vuelta a San Juan on January 24¹³. Simmons kicked free of the field late with an unexpected sprint.

He ultimately finished in the Top 10 in the seven-stage event in San Juan¹⁴. This was a positive result that Simmons can build on in 2023.

Trek-Segafredo has to feel confident with where Simmons is heading. The best is yet to come for this youngster.

Simmons might need to catch a break to win this weekend, but he has the skills to be close at the end. The rising star is an appealing longshot at +2200.

Loulou’s back 🤩

Julian Alaphilippe opens his account for the season with victory at the Faun-Ardèche Classic 🏆

📸 @GettyImages
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🇫🇷 #BDA22 pic.twitter.com/DJcMgz4HoT

— Velon CC (@VelonCC) February 25, 2023

The Best Strade Bianche Betting Value

Julian Alaphilippe (+600)

It’s hard to look away from Julian Alaphilippe in Tuscany even though he’s coming off a down year in 2022.

After winning the UCI World Championships in 2021, Alaphilippe regressed, especially towards the end of 2022. Alaphilippe’s best finish through his last ten races of 2022 was 51st¹⁵.

His 2022 campaign could have been better, but Alaphilippe has gotten off to a strong start in 2023. The French superstar struck on February 25 at the Faun-Ardeche Classic.

Alaphilippe beat David Gaudu in a two-man sprint, after pulling away on the climb at Saint-Romain-de-Lerps¹⁶. He needed that win to get his confidence back early this season.

The veteran is no stranger to riding well at Strade Bianche. He won this race back in 2019 and was the runner-up behind Mathieu van der Poel two years ago¹⁷.

Alaphilippe has the confidence, strong legs early in the year, and his Strade Bianche betting odds present a nice value spot at +600.

🇳🇱 Mathieu van der Poel wins the 🇮🇹 Strade Bianche!

What. An. Attack. 🚀🔥#StradeBianchepic.twitter.com/9uHjIEQewT

— Cyclocross24.com (@cyclocross24) March 6, 2021

The 2023 Strade Bianche Winner

Mathieu van der Poel (+150)

Mathieu van der Poel is not only the clear betting favorite, but he’s also the best cycling pick to win this race. Not only is MVDP one of the best one-day riders in the sport, but he will be competing on Saturday without Tadej Pogacar and Wout Van Aert.

His 2021 Strade Bianche victory featured a late attack where he beat out Alaphilippe for the win. We could see another dual between these two this weekend as well.

Van der Poel won three of his final five road races of the 2022 season. He captured the Stadsprijs Geraardsbergan, Izegem Koers, and the Grand Prix de Walloine in Belgium¹⁸. Although this is his first road race of 2023, MVDP seems to be in good form and good health.

Take the Dutch superstar to bring home the victory in Italy this Saturday and enjoy a +150 return on your wager.