2025 Academy Awards Odds: Who’s Winning an Oscar?

Maria opened as the favorite to win Best Picture in March, but it has since fallen off the board! Anora (+185), which was not among the top contenders, has skyrocketed to the top of the Oscars odds.

I view this as a two-film race between Anora and Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist. Corbet has won a Silver Lion but has never captured an Oscar or been nominated before. However, I am confident in Corbet’s film collecting multiple awards at the 2025 Academy Awards.

With that in mind, The Brutalist at +200 is a smart bet to win Best Picture. Based on architect Laszlo Toth’s move from postwar Europe to a budding modern American economy in 1947, The Brutalist focuses on his journey and rebirth of his life in the US.

Starring an elite cast including leading actor Adrien Brody, the nearly four-hour film has gained worldwide recognition and should continue to garner attention in December. Scheduled for a limited release on December 20, 2024, The Brutalist is one to keep on your watchlist for the holidays.

The Brutalist is expected to have major success at the 2025 Academy Awards. According to the latest Oscar odds, there is a higher probability of winning Best Actor than Best Picture.

At even money, Adrien Brody has a 50% chance of scoring his second Oscar for Best Actor. Brody won in 2003 for his leading role in The Pianist. Critics are calling for a similar performance out of the star, who is made for these types of roles.

The film is centered around Brody’s portrayal of Toth. He is responsible for carrying the story and reportedly does it brilliantly, according to moviegoers who viewed the film at TIFF.

Adrien Brody’s performance in The Brutalist is the crowned jewel of his career. I know that’s hyperbolic but that’s the performance of the year for me so far #TIFF2024 pic.twitter.com/WdvikgOae0

— The Film Drunk (@thefilmdrunk) September 6, 2024

Following the film’s release to theaters in December, expect Brody’s Oscar odds for Best Picture to shorten further. Even money is a good price to back Brody, who continues to gain momentum!

Clarence Maclin and Guy Pearce are in a dead heat, according to the Academy 2025 Awards odds at online betting sites. My numbers have Pearce a bit ahead of Maclin, so the betting value appears to be on The Brutalist co-star.

Like I said, I am confident in The Brutalist cashing in at the Academy Awards this year. Pearce plays wealthy tycoon Harrison Lee Van Buren Sr., who becomes an associate and client of Toth.

After a rough start in his transition to the US, Toth and Van Buren Suren Sr. developed a business relationship. He is instrumental in the film as Toth’s development in the US. As an actor, Peace allegedly nails the performance, so it’s no surprise that his Oscar odds are down to +350.

In March, Blitz’s Kieran Clukin was favored, but he slipped in favor of Maclin and Pearce. Building on a terrific Oscars resume, expect Pearce to pick up the win. I suggest backing the actor for your 2025 Oscars betting picks at this terrific price!

Will Anora be held off the board at the Academy Awards? I see them picking up two or three wins, so no, the comedy/romance should receive some recognition from the Academy.

Mikey Madison is the most likely winner for Anora. The 25-year-old Los Angeles native rose to prominence with her role in FX’s Better Things. Madison scored the role of Anora in this film, which follows her as a sex worker who ultimately meets the love of her life.

Anora meets and marries Ivan, a Russian oligarch with a family that strongly opposes the marriage. With a current rating of 98% on Rotten Tomatoes, Anora is generating plenty of buzz as the favorite to win Best Picture. I don’t anticipate a win for Best Picture, but Madison for Best Actress is a strong play at even Oscar odds!

Danielle Deadwyler and Jennifer Grey opened as co-favorites to win Best Supporting Actress at +230 odds in March. Since then, Grey has fallen way back in the race, while Deadwyler is the second favorite behind Emilia Perez’s Zoe Zaldana.

I sense that this will be a wide-open category, so I’m not sure either of the top favorites is worth a play. Instead, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor is getting fantastic value at +450 odds. Ellis-Taylor joins the Nickel Boys cast, which is receiving rave reviews.

Ellis-Taylor plays Hattie, a loving grandmother who raises her 17-year-old grandson after he leaves his mother’s drug-fueled household. Although the actress is a wildcard in this category, her odds to win Supporting Actress are too solid at this price.

The movie is filmed from a unique POV perspective, and she doesn’t get the most screen time but makes the best out of it when she does. I like Deadwyler’s chances, but the value is on Ellis-Taylor at +450!

We have an interesting race for Best Director at the 2025 Academy Awards. Per the latest prices at Oscars betting sites, Corbet, Sean Baker, and Jacques Audiard share the same odds to win Best Director.

I see this as a two-way race between Corbet and Baker. Similar to Best Picture, The Brutalist and Anora will go down to the wire for this category. In the end, though, Corbet should have just enough support to accept his first Oscar.

The Brutalist is expected to be a hit at the Academy Awards, which should translate to a win for Corbet. In my opinion, +275 odds is a steal on Corbet to win Best Director, so I recommend locking in your wagers on this category!