My Senate election predictions can give you an idea of what to expect for the 2024 race. Bills can live or die in the Senate, where committees and senators with six-year terms to worry about figure out which laws they’re comfortable voting for or against. It’s a vital chamber to control.
Many political betting sites offer Senate election odds, which opens the doors for savvy bettors to make some money. I’m here to help by breaking down the closest Senate races and sharing my best bets for the upcoming Senate elections.
All odds in this post are courtesy of BetUS, a top sportsbook for betting on US politics.
Nevada Senate Winner Party Odds, Predictions, and Best Bet
- Democrats -700
- Republicans +400
Nevada will be one of the most closely watched Senate races in 2024. Bettors originally intuited how close this race was expected to be. The odds leaned in favor of the Democratic incumbent, but the Republican challenger set himself apart in the race.
Incumbent Jacky Rosen has attached her name to some of President Biden’s most popular legislation, including the Inflation Reduction Act, which made historic investments in clean energy and created at least 11,500 new jobs in Nevada.
Sam Brown, the Republican challenger, is an army veteran who was nearly killed by an IED in Afghanistan. He’s running on a conservative economic and states’ rights platform. However, he’s also trying to distance himself from other Republicans on abortion.
Nevada passed a referendum protecting abortion rights in the 1990s. Brown has stated that he wouldn’t support a federal law interfering with Nevada’s abortion protections. However, he has also praised Donald Trump’s “leadership on the issue.” Trump has taken responsibility – with pride – for overturning Roe v. Wade, muddying Brown’s position. Still, the candidate’s position stands apart from Texas’ approach of seeking criminal penalties against women who seek abortions.
Nevada is no longer a close race. Brown’s state’s rights approach to abortion access has not resonated in a post-Roe America.
The Democrat outraised the Republican almost three to one, and Brown hasn’t made himself as widely known as Rosen.
The best bet here is to go against the Republican candidate. Brown has fallen too far behind close to the election to even be a dark horse. Although his resume is strong compared to Republican Senate candidates in other states, he hasn’t made the necessary impact to make a wager on him worth the gamble.
The odds for the Democrats are short, but Nevada is almost a sure thing at this point.
Ohio Senate Winner Party Odds, Predictions, and Best Bet
- Democrats -105
- Republicans -125
Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent, is being challenged by Republican Bernie Moreno. This is another close race that will test Republicans’ ability to overcome Trump’s losing streak from 2018 to 2022.
Over the summer, FiveThirtyEight had Brown leading by four to eight points. Historically, Brown’s seat is safe. He won his 2018 race by 6.4% and his 2012 race by 6%. However, as of the week of Oct. 14, FiveThirtyEight has Brown ahead by an average of 2.4 points – a functional tie.
Trump won Ohio by 8% in 2020, and Brown hasn’t had to face a Senate race where his president lost the state. When Brown was first elected in 2012, Barack Obama won Ohio by just under 3%.
Since Trump’s poll numbers have rallied, and Ohio has become increasingly red, Moreno could be swept into office on the back of a strong showing for Trump.
This is why the bookies slightly favor the Republican candidate and he is the better pick.
Arizona Senate Winner Party Odds, Predictions, and Best Bet
- Democrats -500
- Republicans +300
Arizona is a battleground state, whose Senate contest is between a moderate Democratic candidate, Ruben Gallego, and MAGA challenger, Kari Lake. Over the summer, the odds showed an easy Democrat victory to replace Independent Senator, Kyrsten Sinema.
In the 2018 and 2022 midterms, the Republicans who embraced election denial theories and extreme positions on abortion underperformed. That was especially true in swing districts.
Arizona’s Senate race appears to be a continuation of the same trend. Gallego is a current Representative in the House. His campaign site advocates for abortion rights and acknowledges the border security challenges that southern states like Arizona face.
In contrast, Kari Lake is the type of election-denying extremist who lost Republican races in the last two midterms. Even if Arizona went to Trump, Lake is unlikely to overcome voters’ reservations. The best pick for this race remains the Democrat.
Michigan Senate Winner Party Odds, Predictions, and Best Bet
- Democrats -375
- Republicans +235
Michigan is a swing state, so its Senate seat is in the balance, too. Trump won Michigan in 2016 by less than a quarter percentage point and Biden won it by less than 3% in 2020. However, Michigan is also home to strong Democratic candidates, like Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who was a possible replacement for Joe Biden at the Democratic Convention.
The Democrat running is Elissa Slotkin, a Democratic Representative in the House. She’s a moderate Democrat who has not only supported major Democratic legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act, but she refused to vote in favor of Nancy Pelosi becoming Speaker of the House in 2021. Slotkin has also introduced a bill addressing national security concerns raised by Chinese electric vehicles.
The Republican challenger, Mike Rogers, was a House Representative from 2001 to 2015. Today, he’s running on a tough on crime and immigration platform.
Rogers beat two other Republican candidates who impeached Donald Trump – Justin Amash and Peter Meijer. He has cemented himself as a Trump Republican, giving him power in the primary, but this could hurt him in the general election.
Summer polls gave Slotkin a two to five-point lead over Rogers, but her lead has extended to an average of four points.
The best Senate odds are for the favorite here, so I recommend backing the Democrat.
More 2024 Senate Betting Odds
If you’re looking for more action, BetUS offers Senate odds on all states! If you decide to join the sportsbook, you can grab a welcome bonus of 125% up to $3,125 (25% for the casino) that’s even bigger with crypto!
Welcome Bonus
125% up to $2,625
- Three decades of experience
- Big welcome bonus worth up to $2,625
- Thousands of sports betting options
