Kentucky Derby 2024 Betting Odds, Predictions, And Best Bets

Three-time Kentucky Derby winner John Velazquez is expected to be aboard Fierceness for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, who is looking for his third Derby win and stands a pretty good chance with this horse.

The three-year-old colt was the star of the show at the 2024 Florida Derby (Gr. 1). Fierceness solidified his status as the betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby with a jaw-dropping 13 ½ length win in the $1 million prep race at Gulfstream Park!

Catalytic did what he could to keep pace, but fell back after the ¾ pole. Fierceness extended his lead to 8 lengths at the top of the stretch and cleared handily for a win as the favorite on March 30.

The victory was an impressive response for Fierceness after he faltered in the Holy Bull Stakes (Gr. 3). As an overwhelming favorite, the contestant faded for a 3 ½ length loss behind Domestic Product and Hades.

Fierceness recorded a paltry speed rating of 90, but looked much faster in Florida, clocking a 110. Fierceness posted a similar performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Gr. 1) in November, with a 6 ¼ length win in the $2,000,000 event¹.

Overall, Fierceness is three for five in his career, which started at Saratoga on August 25, 2023. The Repole Stable-owned three-year-old is the clear favorite if he brings the same effort as he did at Gulfstream Park in March.

However, the 7^th place in the Champagne Stakes (Gr. 1) and a lackluster performance in the Holy Bull leave the door open for a challenger. Consistency is a concern for Fierceness.

Fierceness’s post-position draw didn’t hurt his odds in the least. In fact, they improved from +275 to +250. Keep in mind, however, that Fierceness will have to make history as the first-ever horse to win from the No. 17 gate.

Pletcher’s Fierceness would be the first horse in the race’s 150-year history to win from the No. 17 post position. I would like to see better KY Derby odds on Fierceness before giving him the nod.

Going for Fierceness with your Kentucky Derby 2024 picks doesn’t make sense at the current odds. At +250, there isn’t much value on Fierceness at BetUS.

Trainer Chad Brown has hundreds of stakes wins in his career, but the Kentucky Derby crown has eluded him. Brown has one of the best chances he’s had to end the drought in 2024.

Grade 1 winner Sierra Leone has looked sharp through the first four starts of his career. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione has piloted Sierra Leone to three wins in four events. The horse’s latest effort was his most impressive in the $1 million Toyota Blue Grass (Gr. 1).

Following a half-length win in the $400,000 Risen Stakes (Gr. 2) in February, Sierra Leone saved his best for Keeneland on April 6. The contestant notched the best speed figure of his career at 107.

The $2.3 million colt surged and kicked free for a 1 ½ length victory over Just a Touch. It was the best speed figure of Sierra Leone’s career, and he should have more to offer in the future.

While Fierceness may have peaked too early in the Florida Derby, I don’t believe Sierra Leone has reached his best form. The kick in the stretch for Sierra Leone in the Toyota Blue Grass was quite promising.

It could be a prelude to what is to come at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. There are concerns with Fierceness’s consistency, but that hasn’t been the case for Sierra Leone.

Sierra Leone drew the No. 2 post position, which could have been better. 1978 Kentucky Derby winner Affirmed is the most recent No. 2 horse to win.

Nevertheless, Sierra Leone is a fast horse, and his price did not move at all following the draw. This suggests that bettors have confidence in him for their KY Derby predictions, despite drawing No. 2.

In addition to 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 1st finishes in his career, his workouts have been consistent. Sierra Leone has been clocked at 49, 49, 48.60, 49.60, and 49.60 seconds in 4 furlongs since early March².

Chad Brown’s Sierra Leone has been the most consistent stakes runner in this field. There is no denying how impressive Fierceness was in the Florida Derby (Gr. 1). However, I have confidence in Sierra Leone running his typical race.

He has finished 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st in four career races. Most importantly, Sierra Leone has continued to show improvement and get faster since his debut in November.

In the Toyota Blue Grass (Gr. 1), Brown’s colt showed off with the ability to weave through traffic, bump, and then turn on the juice when it was required in the stretch run. The pace runners didn’t have an answer to fend off Sierra Leone.

If Sierra Leone finds a lane down the stretch, he has a good chance of landing in the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs. This is the most dependable horse in the field, so consider him when betting on the Kentucky Derby 2024.

For a winning Kentucky Derby exacta bet, the ticket must correctly predict which horses will finish 1st and 2nd in the race. Currently, the lowest payout for a Fierceness-Sierra Leone exacta.

However, that particular wager doesn’t have the best betting value, and I have Sierra Leone winning the Kentucky Derby. Therefore, look elsewhere for your best exacta bet.

As I noted for my sleeper Kentucky Derby 2024 picks, Catching Freedom is hot following a strong showing in the Louisiana Derby (Gr. 2). A similar effort would put Catching Freedom in contention.

Catching Freedom continued to attract attention from bettors after the post-position draw was announced. No. 4 isn’t the absolute best, but it’s above average. Additionally, Catching Freedom is right next to the No. 5 gate, which has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners in history.

Sierra Leone catches them all down the stretch, but Catching Freedom hangs in there to place 2nd. With that in mind, consider an exacta ticket on Sierra Leone finishing 1st and Catching Freedom 2nd.

The trifecta bet offers larger payouts, but the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place horses must be correct. Although I am not high on Fierceness’s Kentucky Derby 2024 betting odds at +275, he should be utilized on a trifecta or superfecta ticket.

With Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom finishing 1st and 2nd, I expect Fierceness to run well enough to hang around. Sierra Leone’s late kick should be the difference to overtake his foes in the final furlong.

That likely pushes Catching Freedom back to 2nd and Fierceness to 3rd. What’s more, the payout on this bet will be quite impressive if it hits on Derby Day.

Public money will pour in on Fierceness to win, so the odds will be favorable for a Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, and Fierceness top-3 finish.