The Republican VP odds suggest it’s going to be a close race for Trump’s number two in 2024! As we get closer to the Republican Convention, a small group of favorites has emerged. You can find prices for various people at the best political betting sites.
Vice Presidential picks are often picked shortly before the Republican Convention, which starts on July 15 this year. If we assume that Donald Trump chooses his Vice President at the Convention, you have until around that date to place your bets.
Your VP picks demand precision, and the payouts are high for anyone who can play Trump’s game theory along with him. Those odds tell us that both oddsmakers and political bettors are as uncertain about Trump’s VP pick as the pundits.
Republican VP Candidate Odds In 2024
The following Republican VP betting odds for 2024 are courtesy of BetUS.
| CANDIDATE | ODDS |
| J.D. Vance | +100 |
| Doug Burgum | +250 |
| Marco Rubio | +600 |
| Ben Carson | +800 |
| Glenn Youngkin | +1400 |
| Elise Stefanik | +1400 |
| Tim Scott | +1800 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +2000 |
The odds for Republican VP candidate tell us a lot about the shortlist and how remote the chances for key media figures are. I’ve only included the eight most realistic options, but BetUS offers many more, so check them out if you’re looking to bet on a shocking candidate.
The shortlist has changed dramatically since VP rumors began circulating in the Spring. Kristi Noem has basically disqualified herself from the ticket. She revealed that she shot her 14-month old dog for being disobedient in her memoir, sparking outrage and removing her from the shortlist.
The first three candidates show the narrowed-down shortlist. Doug Burgum, J.D. Vance, and Marco Rubio are three previously independent-minded candidates who’ve risen to high office already. They bring legislative experience and the ability to grapple with policy details that Trump lacks.
Noticeably, the former 2024 presidential candidates have long odds. Tulsi Gabbard and Vivek Ramaswamy were always long shots. Trump doesn’t like to share the stage, and former presidential contenders as a group did poorly.
Above all, each of the likely candidates has demonstrated unwavering public support for Donald Trump. From Doug Burgum to Glenn Youngkin, each has hours of video groveling to Trump. Before I share my prediction, let’s check the more likely VP candidates next.
Top Favorites For The Republican Vice President Nominee
Traditionally, one of the vice-presidential jobs is to secure their home state for their candidate. However, none of the favorite VP picks come from swing states. (Florida is close, but Trump improved his vote share in Florida from 2016 to 2020.)
Instead, they’re largely candidates who could compliment Trump’s weaknesses. The favorites bring legislative experience and media polish to the campaign.
Each of the favorites has also demonstrated the necessary loyalty to be considered for the vice presidency. They have embraced the right wing of the Republican Party where Trump’s MAGA base lives. The choice will come down to what they can offer Trump in the general election, where moderate voters are put off by radical positions on issues like abortion and election denial.
Doug Burgum
Few people have paid attention to Doug Burgum until recent weeks revealed his new position on the Republican VP shortlist. He’s the governor of North Dakota and a former entrepreneur who sold his company, Great Plains Software, to Microsoft in 2001.
Because he’s governor of North Dakota, energy policy, especially within oil and gas, is one of his areas of policy expertise. Energy production and national security are intimately linked, so Burgum brings strong credentials on both issues.
Burgum is also more articulate about policy than Trump. He would get a potential role as a calming voice, similar to the role Mike Pence played in Trump’s first term.
However, it’s Burgum’s ability to pivot from the independent thinker his constituents remember to Trump sycophant that’s startling.
A Politico profile detailed Burgum’s transformation from a Republican governor who would seriously listen to Democratic members of his state legislature to supporting a six-week abortion ban in a state that previously allowed it up to 22 weeks.
Not long ago, @DougBurgum was a moderate Republican beloved by North Dakota. Then Donald Trump came calling. The enlightened entrepreneur has now magically morphed into a MAGA warrior. Here's my story on the Burgum re-branding. Many miles were logged. https://t.co/uTtEOgpz4D
— Stephen Rodrick (@stephenrodrick) July 5, 2024
One of Burgum’s large donors also has direct access to Trump, which could’ve helped him get in the room.
J.D. Vance
J.D. Vance first rose to prominence with his memoir, Hillbilly Elegy. He described his Appalachian upbringing, mixing criticism of his childhood with critiques of urban liberals who looked down on him and his family.
Today, he’s a Republican Senator from Ohio who has joined the chorus of anti-establishment conservatives.
Vance has offered Donald Trump his support and received back his endorsement during his Ohio senate primary.
He could bring a mellower voice to Trump’s ticket but wouldn’t bridge any of the important gaps in the general election. Ohio is already a red state, so Vance wouldn’t bring a new swing state to the table. There aren’t any meaningful policy differences on social issues that would assuage concerns from suburban women, either.
Kristi Noem
Kristi Noem, the governor of South Carolina, has been making aggressive overtures to Donald Trump. She’s on the record saying that she wouldn’t run against him because he’s such a skilled politician. Clearly, she fulfills the loyalty requirement.
Her hard-right religious credentials are also without question. She also has a hard stance on abortions. On one hand, Noem could play a similar role that Mike Pence played in Trump’s 2016 election and serve as a bridge to evangelical Christian voters.
However, Noem would fail to bridge the electoral gap created by Roe v. Wade’s overturn. While her loyalty and MAGA credentials would fit her on a Trump ticket, she may not play to the needs of the general election.
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio’s odds have improved dramatically. His odds were at +2200 in the spring and have fallen to +600 the week before the Republican Convention.
One of the most unique strengths that Rubio would bring to Trump’s ticket is his appeal to Hispanic voters. At a Trump rally, Rubio spoke on stage in English and Spanish. According to Politico, Rubio also worked with Trump to double the child tax credit and provide small business loans during the pandemic. Rubio was also influential in Trump’s Latin American policy.
However, Rubio’s establishment credentials cut against him, too. Donald Trump Jr. expressed skepticism about having an “establishment” candidate so close to the Oval Office. Trump Jr. worried that Rubio’s VP position could result in Trump’s impeachment to remove MAGA influence from the White House.
Rubio is a strong VP candidate with great experience. However, he may not be strong enough to overcome the conspiratorial environment of Trump’s media bubble.
Best Sleepers For A Republican VP Candidate
The best sleeper for a Republican VP candidate is Tim Scott. In the long run, he is one of the most interesting conservatives today. Scott is part of a project called America’s Starting Five.
According to NBC, Scott and four other Black congressional Republicans release weekly YouTube videos. Their goal is “both to make Black conservatives more visible and to reach Black voters.”
Drawing Black voters into the Republican Party is a long-term project. In 2020, Biden won 92% of Black voters. The historical reasons for Democratic loyalty among Black voters run deep.
The shared history of slavery, Jim Crowe, and civil rights struggles bind the Black community tightly to each other and the party that enacted civil rights.
However, there are far more Black conservatives than Black Republicans. In the general election, Tim Scott’s outreach experience could sway some of those Black conservatives to vote Republican.
2024 Republican VP Predictions And Betting Picks
I’ll shoot straight, the best picks for the Republican vice presidential slot are Doug Burgum and J.D. Vance, so the VP odds look spot on. Picking two candidates would be the smart political betting strategy if the odds for the two were slightly higher.
Burgum and Vance could be the softer voices in Trump’s loud room. They’re both successful and articulate on their own. Either man could speak to policy details or obfuscate for Trump as needed.
The deciding factor for me here are the odds. You can get +250 for Burgum, while backing Vans is worth only +100. That’s too big of a difference for two candidates with comparable chances, so I’m going after the higher price.
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