NFL Week 10 Underdog Picks: Who Will Deliver an Upset?

The Panthers and Giants are both 2-7 heading into their matchup this week. New York is technically the home team, but this game is taking place at Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany. Carolina will also have more momentum going into this game after beating the Saints last week.

The Carolina @Panthers sideline is celebrating like they just won the Super Bowl.

They’re gonna beat the @Saints 23-22.

Hell yea. #KeepPounding pic.twitter.com/M5Kjd65NpB

— Kyle Bailey (@KyleBaileyClub) November 3, 2024

Neither team’s season has gone as planned, and the loser of this game will have the inside track on the first overall pick. The Panthers have traded away two receivers in recent weeks, and their offense will face a tough matchup against the Giants’ Defense.

Despite all of that, I would not be surprised if the Panthers found a way to win this game on the road. The Giants have not won since their upset over the Seahawks in Week 5. Their offense has shown flashes, but New York has also been held under 10 points in two of their last four games.

This game will come down to which team can play a more complete game, which is easier said than done when traveling across the Atlantic. New York should not be a 5.5-point favorite over anyone, and the Panthers are worth the risk this week.

The Patriots forced overtime last week in Tennessee with a game-tying drive as time expired. New England held the Titans to a field goal, but rookie Drake Maye threw an interception to end the game on the Patriots’ next drive. Maye will face another tough defense this week in Chicago as the Patriots take on the Bears.

Chicago has not played at home in a month and has lost back-to-back games. Rookie Caleb Williams and the Bears offense have struggled during their losing streak. Williams has zero touchdown passes, a sub-70 pass rating, and under 220 passing yards in each of the last two games.

There are also concerns that head coach Matt Eberflus lost the locker room. If those concerns prove true, then the Bears’ struggles are only just beginning. The Patriots, on the other hand, have looked revitalized since Maye entered the lineup.

Maye has not been perfect, but he has racked up six passing touchdowns in four starts. Winning in Chicago will be easier said than done, but the QB has looked better with each start this season. If he continues to improve and the Bears’ struggles continue, Maye and the Pats can pull off the upset this weekend.

Speaking of underachieving teams, the Dolphins (2-6) have yet to win a game since Tua Tagovailoa returned from his concussion. Miami needs Tua and the rest of the offense to be at their best if they want to keep their season alive.

📊 Aaron Brewer in his first season as Miami Dolphin so far (league ranks among Cs):

➖ 481 snaps played (10th)
➖ 0 sacks allowed (t-1st)
➖ 0 QB hits allowed (t-1st)
➖ 3 hurries allowed (t-3rd)
➖ 3 pressures allowed (t-1st)
➖ 1 penalty (t-2nd least)
➖ 80.4 overall grade… pic.twitter.com/n9Etnjy3hM

— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) October 29, 2024

The Dolphins’ defense also needs to play better this week for Miami to upset the Rams in LA. Since Tua reentered the lineup, Miami has given up 28 and 30 points to the Cardinals and the Bills, respectively. If Miami’s defense can step up against the Rams, then the Dolphins’ offense should be able to power them to a win.

LA’s offense has been rejuvenated since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned from their injuries. However, Miami has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 62.3% of their passes, the seventh-lowest in the NFL. The Dolphins have also only surrendered eight passing touchdowns, tied for fifth-fewest, and 6.7 yards per attempt, tied for ninth-fewest.

I also expect Miami’s passing attack to be better now that Tua has had two complete games to get his feet under him. Tua must avoid the Rams pass rush, which had seven sacks last week, and get Tyreek Hill involved early and often. If he does that, Miami will pull off the upset on Sunday Night Football.

Certain NFL teams prefer to play with their backs against the wall. Some players and head coaches are at their best when they are in an underdog role.

The competitive spirit of wanting to prove doubters wrong can be a strong motivator! One of the most effective ways to identify these squads is to note teams that have a strong record as an underdog on the moneyline.

Additionally, bettors can use against-the-spread (ATS) data to help formulate their game plan. For instance, the Washington Commanders (8-5 ATS), Indianapolis Colts (7-4 ATS), and Cleveland Browns (6-1 ATS) were great underdog NFL picks last season.

I also take note of the record of head coaches and quarterbacks as underdogs! While this isn’t a sure-fire guarantee of success in their next game, it can be used as a guide to tell you which personnel in the NFL “gets up” with their backs against the wall.

There will always be an underdog and a favorite in every NFL matchup! However, did bookies miss something in their analysis? For instance, does the underdog have one glaring advantage over a weakness of the favorite side?

It requires digging into advanced statistics to find these small edges on the football field. The public and online sportsbooks are well aware of the major mismatches in games. We recommend researching these strengths and weaknesses, but also looking at the game within the game.

For instance, does the favorite have an injury or depth issues flying under the radar that the public is ignoring? Injuries to star players aren’t the only determining factor in the result of games.

The health and status of the offensive line is also a huge factor that can’t be ignored! There are great teams in the NFL that can crumble due to problems in the trenches, so always check on this aspect for your best underdog picks in the NFL.

Recency bias plays a huge role in how point spreads and NFL odds are crafted. Bettors react to what just happened instead of looking at the whole picture.

Following a big win, the line is generally impacted in favor of this team the ensuing week. It’s important to keep in mind that letdowns can happen afterward. This is especially true for mediocre to good teams that aren’t quite in elite territory.

However, it can bite any team in the NFL who isn’t prepared, especially on a short week! Thursday Night Football has a knack of sneaking up on teams only days following a signature victory.

Conversely, there is the classic look-ahead spot of favorites having their attention on a more formidable opponent or rivalry matchup the following week. These teams tend to go through the motions and fail to focus on the task at hand!

I always monitor line movement throughout the week for my best NFL underdog picks and other selections. It’s also worth researching where the money is flowing, and which team is seeing the biggest bets.

If the shift isn’t following the bets on a public favorite, bookmakers are confident that they have it right and not the majority of bettors. In some instances, there is reverse line movement, where the odds move against the money.

When making your selections for our free NFL pick’em contest, it’s also worth keeping this important tip in mind!

Additionally, line shop for the best odds across multiple sports betting apps and sites. It can be the difference between winning and losing your best NFL underdog picks this week! Let’s examine a quick example between two popular bookies:

Bovada:

• New England Patriots +8.5 (-115)
• Cincinnati Bengals -8.5 (-105)

BetOnline:

• New England Patriots +9 (-112)
• Cincinnati Bengals -9 (-108)

If you like the Patriots as an underdog, consider placing your bets at BetOnline! Not only are the odds better at -112, but you’re getting an extra 0.5 points on the point spread.

The Sports Geek recommends checking out the odds at these reputable sportsbooks:

• Bovada
• Betwhale
• BetOnline
• BetUS