The Palme d’Or odds for the highest honor bestowed at the Cannes Film Festival are live at the top entertainment betting sites! Every year since 1955, the Palme d’Or has been awarded to the most outstanding film showcased at the festival.
In 2024, there is a strong lineup of contenders for the Palme d’Or. 19 films have been nominated to win this prestigious award at the 77th Cannes Film Festival.
With the event starting on Tuesday, May 14, now is a good time to explore the latest favorites and betting lines. Below, find my preview, analysis, and 2024 Palme d’Or predictions!
Palme d’Or 2024 Betting Odds
The following Cannes Palme d’Or odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
| FILM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Megalopolis | +400 |
| Bird | +500 |
| The Shrouds | +500 |
| Kinds of Kindness | +600 |
| Caught by the Tides | +600 |
| The Apprentice | +600 |
| Limonov, The Ballad of Eddie | +600 |
| Parthenope | +700 |
Megalopolis (+400) has leading odds to win the Palme d’Or at the 77th Cannes Film Festival! As the betting favorite, the highly anticipated Francis Ford Coppola film has an implied probability to win of 20%.
An implied chance of just 20% suggests this is a wide-open race for the Palme d’Or. According to the rest of the Cannes betting odds on the Palme d’Or, it’s a tight race, with seven films between +400 and +600.
Behind Megalopolis, Bird and The Shrouds are tied for the second-best odds to win at +500. Both films have an implied probability of winning the Palme d’Or of 16.7%.
Palme d’Or 2024 Favorites
According to the latest Cannes Palme d’Or betting odds on betting apps and sites, three films have the best chance to win the top award at the Cannes Film Festival.
Let’s analyze them to see why:
Megalopolis (+400)
- Director: Francis Ford Coppola
- Cast: Adam Driver, Aubrey Plaza, Shia LaBeouf, Jon Voight, Dustin Hoffman
- Expected Release Date: September 2024 (France)
The man behind The Godfather, Apocalypse Now, Jack, and The Rainmaker returns with a boom-or-bust film. While Megalopolis is garnering for a variety of reasons, it hasn’t been all positive despite the film not debuting yet.
Filmmaker/Director:
Coppola has struggled to find a movie distributor to pick up the movie. On April 23, it was reported that Paris-based Le Pacte acquired French rights to Megalopolis1.
Nous sommes fier et heureux d’annoncer que Francis Ford Coppola a confié à Le Pacte la distribution de MEGALOPOLIS en France .
Le film sera présenté en compétition au Festival de Cannes 2024. pic.twitter.com/knGqOsx04I— Le Pacte (@Le_Pacte) May 1, 2024
However, the film, which has been self-financed by Coppola, hasn’t seen interest from a major movie distributor in the United States. Why? Distributors are not confident that the movie will be marketable and sell millions of tickets.
That doesn’t seem to be the case with Megalopolis, which appears to be a bizarre sci-fi passion project that Coppola has formulated.
There could be some controversial undertones that don’t make the general public fall in love with this film, but we’ll see the reception at Cannes.
Plot/Cast:
The film is reportedly based on an alternate universe in New York known as “New Rome”.
It focuses on the city’s reconstruction after a natural disaster destroyed everything in its path. In the wake of the disaster, an architect is hellbent on turning “New Rome” into a utopia. The mayor, however, is determined to maintain the status quo and thwart the architect’s attempt.
While the film can’t find a major distributor to sign on, Megalopolis features an all-star cast. Adam Driver, Shia LaBeouf, Aubrey Plaza, Jon Voight, and Dustin Hoffman have a role in the star-studded movie!
That doesn’t necessarily translate to a win at the box office, but there is a ton of curiosity surrounding this $120 million Coppola flick.
It might just be the right type of weird to impress the Cannes Film Festival Crowd. In my opinion, however, there is better value on the board to win the Palme d’Or.
Bird (+500)
- Director: Andrea Arnold
- Cast: Barry Keoghan, Franz Rogowski, Nykiya Adams, Jason Buda
- Expected Release Date: NA
There currently isn’t too much known about Bird, but there are some hints as to what this could look like given Andrea Arnold’s participation.
Filmmaker/Director:
Andrea Arnold is no stranger to the Cannes Film Festival. She is a regular and is well-known on the Croisette. The director’s most successful work has been on Fish Tank and American Honey.
Despite not directing often, she typically doesn’t miss with her projects. Arnold has a couple of big names behind her to give Bird a big push at the Cannes Film Festival.
Plot/Cast:
Barry Keoghan fresh off his role in The Banshees of Inisherin, provides Arnold with a sizable star. The Irishman has previously been spotted filming the movie covered in tattoos while riding on a scooter.
Filmed in the UK, Bird is expected to take a look at the fringe of society and the struggles of living in an unfortunate socioeconomic position. Arnold often dives into deep character development, focusing on social outcasts in society.
The plot and storyline have otherwise been kept under lock and key. Nevertheless, Keoghan in this type of role is sure to impress. Best Actor winner Franz Rogowski portrays Bird in the film, so the cast should be very impressive in this one.
#NYFCC Best Actor winner Franz Rogowski teases us about his upcoming film “Bird,” from director Andrea Arnold and co-star Barry Keoghan. pic.twitter.com/AL1YOoJ9cb
— IndieWire (@IndieWire) January 4, 2024
Although Bird is not a favorite for the 2025 Oscars or even on the board, it could very well be after the Cannes Film Festival. Led by Keoghan, I have a good feeling about Bird in France.
The Shrouds (+500)
- Director: David Cronenberg
- Cast: Vincent Cassel, Diane Kruger, Guy Pearce
- Expected Release Date: September 25, 2024 (France)
David Cronenberg’s horror flick The Shrouds promises to turn some heads at the Cannes Film Festival.
Filmmaker/Director:
The film is personal to Cronenberg, whose wife passed away in 2017. Cronenberg is the writer and director of the film, and most likely found some influence during his own grieving process.
His films in the past have featured some distributing and unsettling undertones. However, he’s produced some classics, including The Fly, The Brood, Videodrome, and Existenz.
In addition to unsettling storylines and visuals, Cronenberg is a master of setting the mood for horror movies!
Plot:
The horror/thriller’s plot centers around a businessman who creates a device to communicate with the dead. As a grieving widower after his wife passed away, he creates a unique device to talk to the dead in a burial shroud.
First image of Cronenberg’s THE SHROUDS, from this month’s Cahiers pic.twitter.com/RfLP8AoYGH
— TWY (@TerenceYiBo) January 3, 2024
I have no qualms about The Shrouds being a quality thriller. However, will the Cannes Film Festival prefer a horror family over the competition? Vincent Cassel, Diane Kruger, and Guy Pearce are expected to take on leading roles.
As good as it may be, it should be an uphill battle for Cronenberg to win the Palme d’Or. That being said, The Shrouds’ Cannes Film Festival betting odds for the Palme d’Or suggest that its chance to win is stronger than most of the films nominated.
The Rest Of The Bunch
Let’s delve into my Cannes Film Festival 2024 predictions for the Palme d’Or, starting with the best sleeper picks. Although betting odds on the Palme d’Or are not conducive for these films to win, oddsmakers have it wrong with a few prices.
Check out my best bets on the Palme d’Or among the sleeper films:
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Along with Arnold, Italian director Paolo Sorrentino is a fan favorite in Cannes. The iconic movie maker is bringing what should be a quality film about a woman’s journey and ups and downs through life in Naples. With stunning backdrops of Italy, the visuals from screenshots have been impressive!
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Payal Kapadia’s feature film debut could be the surprise film of the Cannes Film Festival 2024. Based on gender and cultural politics in India, Kapadia plays a nurse who receives a gift from her estranged husband that puts her life in upheaval.
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Featuring Richard Gere and Jacob Elordi, Oh, Canada is about Leonard Fife, a Vietnam War draft dodger who flees to Canada to avoid going to war. This one has a chance to steal the show at Cannes.
2024 Cannes Palme d’Or Predictions and Betting Pick
Since rising to fame due to his role in The Banshees of Inisherin, Keohgan should be viewed as a big player during award season. That’s if he gets the right roles, and at first glance, the Irish actor was cast perfectly for Bird.
Similar to Arnold making LaBeouf look like the part in American Honey, Keoghan should be able to bring her vision to the next level!
This film may not draw as much buzz in the media as Megalopolis, but I am confident that Bird will resonate with the audience more. Arnold has come close to winning the Palme d’Or three separate times in the past, so it could be her time at the 2024 Cannes Film Festival.
Bird’s Palme d’Or 2024 odds are getting solid value at +500, so consider a play on Arnold’s latest work.
Where To Bet On The Cannes Film Festival 2024?
Betting on the Palme d’Or and other Cannes Film Festival awards is available this year at BetOnline. The bookmaker offers odds on both the Palme d’Or and Camera d’Or!
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Sources:
Megalopolis’ Sets French Distribution With Le Pacte | Deadline.com. Retrieved From “https://deadline.com/2024/04/megalopolis-sets-french-distribution-le-pacte-1235893018/”
