NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight: Best First Basket Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell’s NBA first basket odds are certainly worth a hard look for your NBA prop bets today! The Cavaliers are the masters of winning the jump ball, so they are always a bet worth considering.

From the teams playing today, the Cavaliers lead the league with a win rate of 72.7%! Jarrett Allen is one of the top performers in the NBA in jump balls. Allen is tied for the league lead with Victor Wembanyama and Zach Edey for the most tip-offs won with seven!

DONOVAN MITCHELL HITS THE GAME-WINNER AND THE CAVS STAY UNDEFEATED 🔥 pic.twitter.com/3elChNkccv

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 3, 2024

The numbers point to the Cavaliers winning the opening jump off, which means that Donovan Mitchell should have a strong chance of scoring the first points. Mitchell leads the Cavaliers with 17.27 shot attempts per game. He’s scored 22.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field!

Look for Mitchell to cut to the rim for a quick two points and win the first NBA basket prop bets for the Cavaliers vs. Bulls!

The Spurs’ Stephon Castle is getting tremendous value to score the first points against the Kings at +700 odd!

The 20-year-old rookie is continuing to shoot the ball more after limited use in the opening games of his pro career. Castle is coming off a career-high 16 field goal attempts and 23 points in a 111-110 loss to the Jazz.

He had a career-high 11 shot attempts and 14 points just two days earlier against the Trail Blazers. Castle is getting more comfortable, and the coaching staff is feeling more confident in calling his number in the starting lineup.

No. 4 pick Stephon Castle with a BEAUTIFUL move 🔥

He's got a career-high 19 PTS!

Jazz-Spurs in a close one late in Q4 on NBA TV. pic.twitter.com/jAC2prlBWu

— NBA (@NBA) November 10, 2024

The Spurs are one of the best in winning jump balls, so they have a solid chance of having the opening possession. As I noted, Wembanyama is tied for the lead with seven jump balls won. He has a win rate of 77.78% to put him in a tie with Zach Edey!

Look into playing Castle at an excellent price of +700 for your best NBA first basket bets today.

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.